Wednesday, November 09, 2022

November Madness 2022 results!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Thanks to all who participated in Knesset November Madness 2022!  The final election results are in, so we’re ready to announce the November Madness results.  There is a lot to say substantively about what happened in this Israeli election (and in the American elections, where the votes are still being counted), but we’re going to try to avoid saying those things here, and instead focus only on the prediction contest.

The final results were:

  1. Likud 32
  2. Yesh Atid 24
  3. Religious Zionism / Otzmah Yehudit 14
  4. HaMahaneh HaMamlachti 12
  5. Shas 11
  6. United Torah Judaism 7
  7. Yisrael Beiteinu 6
  8. Ra’am (United Arab List) 5
  9. Hadash-Ta’al 5
  10. Labor 4
  11. Meretz
  12. Balad
  13. HaBayit HaYehudi
  14. Hofesh Calcali
  15. B’Ometz Bishvilcha
  16. HaKalkalit HaHadasha
  17. Tzeirim Bo’arim
  18. Pirate Party
  19. Kol haSviva v’haHai
  20. Da’at Tov vaRa uBrit Shevet Avraham
  21. Nativ
  22. Kol Kol Koveia
  23. Yesh Kivun
  24. Israel Hofsheet
  25. Seder Hadash
  26. HaAtzmaim HaHadashim
  27. Manhigut Hevratit
  28. Reshimat Shloshim Arba’im
  29. Ani v’Ata
  30. Shahar Koah Hevrati
  31. HaLev HaYehudi
  32. Bible Bloc
  33. K’vod haAdam
  34. Anachnu
  35. Tzomet
  36. Tzav haSha’a
  37. Shema Party
  38. United Sons of Covenant
  39. KaMaH – Kidum Ma’amad HaPrat
  40. Koah L’hashpia

Now, let’s go to the November Madness results.  Some aspects of the results were widely predicted, while others (e.g., Meretz not passing the 3.25% election threshold) were not.  We’ve been doing these contests since 2006, and we’ve never had a repeat champion before, but (with 5 elections in the last 4 years) it was bound to happen eventually.  And sure enough, when we had two contestants tie by correctly predicting 113 out of 120 Knesset seats this year, both of them are past champions!  Our top two were March Madness 2020 champion Isaac Brooks Fishman of Washington, Douglass Commonwealth, and March Madness 2021 champion Jonathan Gruenhut of Jerusalem.

To settle this, we had to go to the tiebreakers.  The first tiebreaker question was “Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?”.  Isaac Brooks Fishman picked Balad, and Jonathan Gruenhut picked HaBayit HaYehudi, but neither of them correctly predicted Meretz.

Next we go to the second tiebreaker question: “Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”.  Isaac Brooks Fishman picked K’vod haAdam, and Jonathan Gruenhut picked Yesh Kivun, but neither of them correctly predicted Koah L’hashpia.

So now we go back to the first tiebreaker question, and see who was closest.  Balad and HaBayit Yehudi both failed to make it into the Knesset, but Balad came closer, so Isaac Brooks Fishman is the 2022 November Madness champion (and the first ever two-time champion)!

We asked both top finishers for statements.  Our runner-up, Jonathan Gruenhut, writes (once again):

i think my original suggestion holds up!
“Judge every person favorably (Avot 1:6).”

And our champion, Isaac Brooks Fishman, writes:

I really didn’t want to win this one; one of these days I’d like to be wrong in my pessimism. Support BDS.

So that’s all for this year.  If this Knesset serves its full 4-year term and elections happen as scheduled (which last happened in 1988), we’ll be back on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (which, once again, is one week before the US midterm elections).  If not, then we’ll see you sometime before that!