October Madness 2026!

(Crossposted to Jewschool.) 

There is an Israeli election coming up very soon!  For a while, we were doing these prediction pools every few months, but now it's been 4 years since the last election, and (despite, or because of, everything happening in the last 4 years), this is somehow the first Israeli election taking place "on time" (rather than early) since 1988.  So now we're out of practice (and maybe we're feeling depressed enough about everything that it's taken us until the week before the election to get it together to set up this contest).

So here’s how it works:

How to Enter: Go to the October Madness link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 38 parties will win. All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats. However, if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 (or 31 NIS) to the organization of your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free to share which organization you chose and why.) Israeli citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.

The Rules (for the real election): The 38 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the full list of candidates in Hebrew, and a list of the parties in English. Wikipedia also has partial lists of candidates in English. On election day (October 27), Israeli citizens will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote. For example, suppose Gan Eden wins 1% of the vote, HaPiratim (the Pirates) wins 33%, and Shema wins 66%. Then Seder Hadash wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25% threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120 Knesset seats: HaPiratim gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates on its list are elected), and Shema gets 80 seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the Pirates list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically impossible for all 38 parties to win seats in the Knesset. (We are unclear on what happens if all 38 parties split the vote evenly so that none of them is above the threshold.)

The Rules (for the Knesset October Madness pool): The deadline to enter is Monday, October 26, 2021, at 11:59 pm Israel Time (5:59 pm EDT). When the final election results are published, each entry will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example (Shema 80, HaPiratim 40). I predicted 60 seats for HaPiratim, 50 for Shema, and 10 for Likud. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats for HaPiratim and 50 seats for Shema. The entry with the highest score wins!  On the entry form, we are using the English names of the parties as they appear on the official elections website, whether or not they are the best translations or transliterations, except that in some cases we have shortened the names (so, e.g. "HaDemocratim, headed by Yair Golan" just appears as "HaDemocratim").

Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?

The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this one); closest on question 2.

Good luck!!!!!!!!!!!

November Madness 2022 results!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Thanks to all who participated in Knesset November Madness 2022!  The final election results are in, so we’re ready to announce the November Madness results.  There is a lot to say substantively about what happened in this Israeli election (and in the American elections, where the votes are still being counted), but we’re going to try to avoid saying those things here, and instead focus only on the prediction contest.

The final results were:

1. Likud 32
2. Yesh Atid 24
3. Religious Zionism / Otzmah Yehudit 14
4. HaMahaneh HaMamlachti 12
5. Shas 11
6. United Torah Judaism 7
7. Yisrael Beiteinu 6
8. Ra’am (United Arab List) 5
9. Hadash-Ta’al 5
10. Labor 4
11. Meretz
12. Balad
13. HaBayit HaYehudi
14. Hofesh Calcali
15. B’Ometz Bishvilcha
16. HaKalkalit HaHadasha
17. Tzeirim Bo’arim
18. Pirate Party
19. Kol haSviva v’haHai
20. Da’at Tov vaRa uBrit Shevet Avraham
21. Nativ
22. Kol Kol Koveia
23. Yesh Kivun
24. Israel Hofsheet
25. Seder Hadash
26. HaAtzmaim HaHadashim
27. Manhigut Hevratit
28. Reshimat Shloshim Arba’im
29. Ani v’Ata
30. Shahar Koah Hevrati
31. HaLev HaYehudi
32. Bible Bloc
33. K’vod haAdam
34. Anachnu
35. Tzomet
36. Tzav haSha’a
37. Shema Party
38. United Sons of Covenant
39. KaMaH – Kidum Ma’amad HaPrat
40. Koah L’hashpia

Now, let’s go to the November Madness results.  Some aspects of the results were widely predicted, while others (e.g., Meretz not passing the 3.25% election threshold) were not.  We’ve been doing these contests since 2006, and we’ve never had a repeat champion before, but (with 5 elections in the last 4 years) it was bound to happen eventually.  And sure enough, when we had two contestants tie by correctly predicting 113 out of 120 Knesset seats this year, both of them are past champions!  Our top two were March Madness 2020 champion Isaac Brooks Fishman of Washington, Douglass Commonwealth, and March Madness 2021 champion Jonathan Gruenhut of Jerusalem.

To settle this, we had to go to the tiebreakers.  The first tiebreaker question was “Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?”.  Isaac Brooks Fishman picked Balad, and Jonathan Gruenhut picked HaBayit HaYehudi, but neither of them correctly predicted Meretz.

Next we go to the second tiebreaker question: “Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”.  Isaac Brooks Fishman picked K’vod haAdam, and Jonathan Gruenhut picked Yesh Kivun, but neither of them correctly predicted Koah L’hashpia.

So now we go back to the first tiebreaker question, and see who was closest.  Balad and HaBayit Yehudi both failed to make it into the Knesset, but Balad came closer, so Isaac Brooks Fishman is the 2022 November Madness champion (and the first ever two-time champion)!

We asked both top finishers for statements.  Our runner-up, Jonathan Gruenhut, writes (once again):

i think my original suggestion holds up!
“Judge every person favorably (Avot 1:6).”

And our champion, Isaac Brooks Fishman, writes:

I really didn’t want to win this one; one of these days I’d like to be wrong in my pessimism. Support BDS.

So that’s all for this year.  If this Knesset serves its full 4-year term and elections happen as scheduled (which last happened in 1988), we’ll be back on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (which, once again, is one week before the US midterm elections).  If not, then we’ll see you sometime before that!

Knesset November Madness 2022!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Now that the chagim are over, we’re turning our attention to the upcoming Israeli election (among other upcoming elections).  For a while we were doing this every few months, but now it has been a whole year and a half since Knesset March Madness 2021!  But now it’s time for Knesset November Madness 2022!!!  If you’ve been closely following all the developments leading up to the election, or if you haven’t been following this at all, you’re invited to enter with your predictions!

Once again, here’s how it works:

How to Enter: Go to the November Madness link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 39 parties will win.  All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats.  However, if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 (or 35 NIS) to the organization of your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free to share which organization you chose and why.)  Israeli citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.

The Rules (for the real election): The 40 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the full list of candidates in Hebrew, and a list of the parties in English.  Wikipedia also has partial lists of candidates in English.  On election day (November 1), Israeli citizens will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote.  For example, suppose Seder Hadash wins 1% of the vote, HaKalkalit HaHadasha wins 33%, and HaAtzma’im HaHadashim wins 66%. Then Seder Hadash wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25% threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120 Knesset seats: HaKalkalit HaHadasha gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates on its list are elected), and HaAtzma’im HaHadashim gets 80 seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the HaKalkalit HaHadasha list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically impossible for all 40 parties to win seats in the Knesset.  (We are unclear on what happens if all 40 parties split the vote evenly so that none of them is above the threshold.)

The Rules (for the Knesset November Madness pool): The deadline to enter is Monday, October 31, 2021, at 11:59 pm Israel Time (5:59 pm EDT). When the final election results are published, each entry will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example (HaAtzma’im HaHadashim 80, HaKalkalit HaHadasha 40). I predicted 60 seats for HaKalkalit HaHadasha, 50 for HaAtzma’im HaHadashim, and 10 for Hadash/Ta’al. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats for HaKalkalit HaHadasha and 50 seats for HaAtzma’im HaHadashim.  The entry with the highest score wins!

Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?

The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this one); closest on question 2.

Good luck!!!!!!!!!!!

Knesset March Madness 2021 results!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Thank you to everyone who participated in Knesset March Madness 2021!  Now that the election results are official, we’re also ready to announce the official March Madness results.

The Democratic Party (no relation to the American party of that name) dropped out, but here are the results for the other 38 parties:

1. Likud 30
2. Yesh Atid 17
3. Shas 9
4. Blue and White 8
5. Yaminah 7
6. Labor 7
7. United Torah Judaism 7
8. Yisrael Beiteinu 7
9. Religious Zionism 6
10. Joint List 6
11. New Hope 6
12. Meretz 6
13. United Arab List (Ra’am) 4
14. New Economic Party
15. Rapei
16. Pirates
17. Ani v’Atah
18. Hatikvah L’Shinui
19. HaMapatz HaHevrati – Pensioners
20. Mishpat Tzedek
21. Tzomet
22. Am Shalem
23. Seder Hadash
24. KaMaH
25. The Impossible Is Possible
26. HaLev HaYehudi
27. Atzmeinu
28. Bible Bloc Party
29. Olam Hadash
30. Brit HaShutafut
31. The Israelis
32. Shema
33. Da’am Green Economy One State
34. Manhigut Hevratit
35. Ma’an
36. Hetz
37. Anachnu
38. Kevod HaAdam

Let’s go first to the bonus tiebreaker questions (just for fun, because we didn’t have to use any tiebreakers this time to determine the winner).  On the second tiebreaker question (“Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”), honorable mention goes to April Madness 2019 champion Aaron Weinberg of Washington DC, who successfully picked out Kevod HaAdam from a very crowded field of very minor parties.  Kevod HaAdam finished with 196 votes, just barely behind Anachnu with 220 votes and Hetz with 226 votes.

The first tiebreaker question (“Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?”) was tricky this time.  A lot of people predicted that one or more of the parties that in the end did make it over the threshold were not going to make it over the threshold.  So on this question, we had votes for Ra’am, Meretz, Blue and White, Religious Zionism, etc.  But in the end, everyone who was anywhere close to the threshold reached the threshold; no one just barely missed it.  So the correct answer to this question was the New Economic Party, with 0.79% of the vote (well under the threshold of 3.25%, but well above all the other parties that didn’t make it).  Honorable mention goes to March Madness 2020 champion Isaac Brooks Fishman of Washington, D.C., who (along with our winner and runner-up; see below) correctly picked the New Economic Party.

So that leads us into the overall results!  As we said above, a lot of competitors fell short because they predicted that some of these parties weren’t going to reach the threshold, even though all 13 of these party lists made it into the Knesset.  This is the largest number of party lists to be elected to the Knesset since the 2003 election (when the threshold was only 2%, so it was easier for smaller parties to get in). (That only counts party lists at the time of the election, and doesn’t account for Knesset factions splitting up after the election.)  Our top finishers correctly predicted that all 13 parties would be elected, and made their picks accordingly.

In second place, congratulations to Eliana Fishman of Washington DC, who correctly predicted 108 out of 120 Knesset seats!  We asked her for a statement, and she writes:

I urge everyone to register for Hishbati: A Non- and Anti- Zionist Beit Midrash, because Israeli election results are easier to digest once you’ve rejected Zionism!

And in first place, one point ahead with a score of 109, congratulations to our 2021 March Madness champion Jonathan Gruenhut of Jerusalem!!!  We also asked him for a statement, and he wrote (back on Friday, when he first found out that this was the way things were going):

I’m too overwhelmed with shabbat/Pesach prep to worry about partisan politics right now.  We’ll see if anyone can form a coalition.

In the meantime, as always, judge every person favorably (Avot 1:6).

Thanks again to everyone for playing!  If this election results in a stable government that lasts its full 4-year term (LOL), we’ll see you again on Tuesday, November 11, 2025!  Otherwise, keep watching this space to participate in the next Madness contest sometime sooner!

Knesset March Madness 2021!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

It has been an entire year since the last Israeli election!  This is the longest such gap since three elections ago!  But all things must come to an end, and so the next election is coming up in about two weeks.  That means that (following March Madness 2020, September Madness 2019, April Madness 2019, and all their predecessors) it's time for Knesset March Madness 2021!!!!  If you're feeling excited about the election, this is your chance to show that excitement by entering this prediction contest!  Or if you're feeling more depressed or fearful, this is your chance to distract yourself by pretending it's all a game.  Either way, all are invited to submit your predictions!

For the fourth time in two years, here's how it works:

How to Enter: Go to the March Madness link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 39 parties will win.  All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats.  However, if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 (or 33 NIS) to the organization of your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free to share which organization you chose and why.)  Israeli citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.

The Rules (for the real election): The 39 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the full list of candidates in Hebrew, and a list of the parties in English (linking to those same candidate lists in Hebrew).  Wikipedia also has partial lists of candidates in English.  On election day (March 23), Israeli citizens will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote.  For example, suppose Anachnu wins 1% of the vote, Atzmeinu wins 33%, and Ani v'Atah wins 66%. Then Anachnu wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25% threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120 Knesset seats: Atzmeinu gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates on its list are elected), and Ani v'Atah gets 80 seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the Atzmeinu list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically impossible for all 39 parties to win seats in the Knesset.

The Rules (for the Knesset March Madness pool): The deadline to enter is Monday, March 22, 2021, at 11:59 pm Israel Time (5:59 pm EDT). When the final election results are published, each entry will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example (Ani v'Atah 80, Atzmeinu 40). I predicted 60 seats for Atzmeinu, 50 for Ani v'Atah, and 10 for The Impossible Is Possible. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats for Atzmeinu and 50 seats for Ani v'Atah.  The entry with the highest score wins!

Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?

The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this one); closest on question 2.

Good luck!!!!!!!!!!!

Knesset March Madness results!

(Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Well, NCAA March Madness may be proceeding this year without fans in the stands, but Knesset March Madness 2020 is still proceeding normally!

The election results are now official.  Tzomet dropped out before the election, but here are the results for the other 29 parties:

1. Likud 36
2. Blue and White 33
3. Joint List 15
4. Shas 9
5. United Torah Judaism 7
6. Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7
7. Yisrael Beiteinu 7
8. Yaminah 6
9. Otzmah Yehudit
10. Otzmah Liberalit-Kalkalit
11. Kol HaNashim
12. Pirates
13. Mishpat Tzedek
14. Yisraelist – Zechuyoteinu B’Koleinu
15. Ani V’Atah
16. (tie) HaBerit HaMeshutefet
17. (tie) Seder Hadash
18. Koach Lehashpia
19. Mitkademet
20. Da’am Green Economy One State
21. HaLev HaYehudi
22. Shema
23. Bible Bloc Party
24. KaMaH
25. Adom Lavan
26. HaHazon
27. Manhigut Hevratit
28. Kevod HaAdam
29. Peulah L’Yisrael

As we keep repeating essentially the same election over and over, the top scores in the prediction contests keep getting higher and higher, as the results become more and more predictable.  But there were still no perfect scores this time – there were still some changes from last time that participants had to predict (e.g. the gains for Likud and the Joint List, and the losses for Labor-Gesher-Meretz).

But before we get there, let’s talk about the tiebreaker questions.  Once again, the first question (“Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?”) was very straightforward.  Otzmah Yehudit wasn’t close in either direction: it came in far below the threshold to get into the Knesset, but far above any of the other unsuccessful parties.  Most of our entrants got this one right (though some predicted that Otzmah Yehudit would make it into the Knesset).  The second question (“Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”) was harder.  No one predicted the “winner”, Peulah L’Yisrael (which didn’t run in the previous election), or the “runner-up”, Kevod HaAdam.  So honorable mention goes to DMH in DC, and Eliana Fishman in Washington DC, who both picked perennial last-place finisher Manhigut Hevratit, which got the fewest votes of any party that anyone picked for this question.

Now to the overall Knesset prediction results!  We had a tie for second place: Eliana Fishman in Washington DC and Samantha Brody in Teveria, Israel, both scored an astonishing 116 out of 120.  So we go to the tiebreaker questions.  Eliana Fishman picked Otzmah Liberalit-Kalkalit (which came in second among the parties that didn’t make it into the Knesset), and Samantha Brody correctly picked Otzmah Yehudit, so Samantha Brody is our runner-up!  Congratulations!

And in first place, Isaac Brooks Fishman in Washington, Douglass Commonwealth, correctly predicted 117 out of 120 Knesset seats, the highest score in the history of these prediction contests!!!  Congratulations!!!!

We asked our champion for a statement, and he writes:

There is no god but God, and Yeshayahu Leibowitz is the Messenger of God. Now for my next prediction: The winner of the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary will be Eric Swalwell.

Thanks to everyone for playing!  If the newly elected 23rd Knesset somehow forms a stable government that manages to last its entire term, then we’ll see you again on Tuesday, November 5, 2024 (yes, that’s the same day as the US elections).  Otherwise, we might do this all over again in a few months!

Knesset March Madness 2020!!! (sigh)

(Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Do we really have to do this again?  I guess we do, don’t we.   We just had September Madness a few months ago, and April Madness before that, but now Israel is (for the first time ever) approaching its third election in less than a year.  So that means we have to hold another Knesset prediction pool.  Maybe everyone is sick of it at this point, but such is the price of democracy.  But you should totally enter the contest even if you’re not feeling it, because if everyone else decides to sit it out, you can win by default!  Do you have opinions about whether this election is going to turn out the same as the previous two, or different?  Here’s a chance to put your money (no actual money required) where your mouth is.

So here’s how it works, yet again:

How to Enter: Go to the March Madness link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 30 parties will win.  All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats.  However, if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 to the organization of your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free to share which organization you chose and why.)  Israeli citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well, and American Jews are encouraged to vote in the World Zionist Congress election.

The Rules (for the real election): The 30 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the full list of candidates in Hebrew, and a list of the parties in English. On election day (March 2), Israeli citizens will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote.  For example, suppose the Pirate Party wins 1% of the vote, the Bible Bloc Party wins 33%, and Manhigut Hevratit wins 66%. Then the Pirate Party wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25% threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120 Knesset seats: the Bible Bloc Party gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates on its list are elected), and Manhigut Hevratit gets 80 seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the Bible Bloc Party list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically possible for all 30 parties to win seats in the Knesset, but many experts consider this unlikely.

The Rules (for the Knesset March Madness pool): The deadline to enter is Sunday, March 1, 2020, at 11:59 pm Israel Time (4:59 pm EST). When the final election results are published, each entry will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example (Manhigut Hevratit 80, Bible Bloc Party 40). I predicted 60 seats for the Bible Bloc Party, 50 for Manhigut Hevratit, and 10 for KaMaH. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats for the Bible Bloc Party and 50 seats for Manhigut Hevratit.  The entry with the highest score wins!

Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?

The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this one); closest on question 2.

Maybe we’ll put up a post soon with descriptions of all the parties and links to their websites, or maybe we won’t, because it’s mostly the same as last time.

Good luck!!!!