November Madness 2022 results!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Thanks to all who participated in Knesset November Madness 2022!  The final election results are in, so we’re ready to announce the November Madness results.  There is a lot to say substantively about what happened in this Israeli election (and in the American elections, where the votes are still being counted), but we’re going to try to avoid saying those things here, and instead focus only on the prediction contest.

The final results were:

1. Likud 32
2. Yesh Atid 24
3. Religious Zionism / Otzmah Yehudit 14
4. HaMahaneh HaMamlachti 12
5. Shas 11
6. United Torah Judaism 7
7. Yisrael Beiteinu 6
8. Ra’am (United Arab List) 5
9. Hadash-Ta’al 5
10. Labor 4
11. Meretz
12. Balad
13. HaBayit HaYehudi
14. Hofesh Calcali
15. B’Ometz Bishvilcha
16. HaKalkalit HaHadasha
17. Tzeirim Bo’arim
18. Pirate Party
19. Kol haSviva v’haHai
20. Da’at Tov vaRa uBrit Shevet Avraham
21. Nativ
22. Kol Kol Koveia
23. Yesh Kivun
24. Israel Hofsheet
25. Seder Hadash
26. HaAtzmaim HaHadashim
27. Manhigut Hevratit
28. Reshimat Shloshim Arba’im
29. Ani v’Ata
30. Shahar Koah Hevrati
31. HaLev HaYehudi
32. Bible Bloc
33. K’vod haAdam
34. Anachnu
35. Tzomet
36. Tzav haSha’a
37. Shema Party
38. United Sons of Covenant
39. KaMaH – Kidum Ma’amad HaPrat
40. Koah L’hashpia

Now, let’s go to the November Madness results.  Some aspects of the results were widely predicted, while others (e.g., Meretz not passing the 3.25% election threshold) were not.  We’ve been doing these contests since 2006, and we’ve never had a repeat champion before, but (with 5 elections in the last 4 years) it was bound to happen eventually.  And sure enough, when we had two contestants tie by correctly predicting 113 out of 120 Knesset seats this year, both of them are past champions!  Our top two were March Madness 2020 champion Isaac Brooks Fishman of Washington, Douglass Commonwealth, and March Madness 2021 champion Jonathan Gruenhut of Jerusalem.

To settle this, we had to go to the tiebreakers.  The first tiebreaker question was “Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?”.  Isaac Brooks Fishman picked Balad, and Jonathan Gruenhut picked HaBayit HaYehudi, but neither of them correctly predicted Meretz.

Next we go to the second tiebreaker question: “Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”.  Isaac Brooks Fishman picked K’vod haAdam, and Jonathan Gruenhut picked Yesh Kivun, but neither of them correctly predicted Koah L’hashpia.

So now we go back to the first tiebreaker question, and see who was closest.  Balad and HaBayit Yehudi both failed to make it into the Knesset, but Balad came closer, so Isaac Brooks Fishman is the 2022 November Madness champion (and the first ever two-time champion)!

We asked both top finishers for statements.  Our runner-up, Jonathan Gruenhut, writes (once again):

i think my original suggestion holds up!
“Judge every person favorably (Avot 1:6).”

And our champion, Isaac Brooks Fishman, writes:

I really didn’t want to win this one; one of these days I’d like to be wrong in my pessimism. Support BDS.

So that’s all for this year.  If this Knesset serves its full 4-year term and elections happen as scheduled (which last happened in 1988), we’ll be back on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (which, once again, is one week before the US midterm elections).  If not, then we’ll see you sometime before that!

Knesset November Madness 2022!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Now that the chagim are over, we’re turning our attention to the upcoming Israeli election (among other upcoming elections).  For a while we were doing this every few months, but now it has been a whole year and a half since Knesset March Madness 2021!  But now it’s time for Knesset November Madness 2022!!!  If you’ve been closely following all the developments leading up to the election, or if you haven’t been following this at all, you’re invited to enter with your predictions!

Once again, here’s how it works:

How to Enter: Go to the November Madness link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 39 parties will win.  All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats.  However, if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 (or 35 NIS) to the organization of your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free to share which organization you chose and why.)  Israeli citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.

The Rules (for the real election): The 40 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the full list of candidates in Hebrew, and a list of the parties in English.  Wikipedia also has partial lists of candidates in English.  On election day (November 1), Israeli citizens will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote.  For example, suppose Seder Hadash wins 1% of the vote, HaKalkalit HaHadasha wins 33%, and HaAtzma’im HaHadashim wins 66%. Then Seder Hadash wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25% threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120 Knesset seats: HaKalkalit HaHadasha gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates on its list are elected), and HaAtzma’im HaHadashim gets 80 seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the HaKalkalit HaHadasha list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically impossible for all 40 parties to win seats in the Knesset.  (We are unclear on what happens if all 40 parties split the vote evenly so that none of them is above the threshold.)

The Rules (for the Knesset November Madness pool): The deadline to enter is Monday, October 31, 2021, at 11:59 pm Israel Time (5:59 pm EDT). When the final election results are published, each entry will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example (HaAtzma’im HaHadashim 80, HaKalkalit HaHadasha 40). I predicted 60 seats for HaKalkalit HaHadasha, 50 for HaAtzma’im HaHadashim, and 10 for Hadash/Ta’al. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats for HaKalkalit HaHadasha and 50 seats for HaAtzma’im HaHadashim.  The entry with the highest score wins!

Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?

The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this one); closest on question 2.

Good luck!!!!!!!!!!!