Wednesday, November 09, 2022

November Madness 2022 results!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Thanks to all who participated in Knesset November Madness 2022!  The final election results are in, so we’re ready to announce the November Madness results.  There is a lot to say substantively about what happened in this Israeli election (and in the American elections, where the votes are still being counted), but we’re going to try to avoid saying those things here, and instead focus only on the prediction contest.

The final results were:

  1. Likud 32
  2. Yesh Atid 24
  3. Religious Zionism / Otzmah Yehudit 14
  4. HaMahaneh HaMamlachti 12
  5. Shas 11
  6. United Torah Judaism 7
  7. Yisrael Beiteinu 6
  8. Ra’am (United Arab List) 5
  9. Hadash-Ta’al 5
  10. Labor 4
  11. Meretz
  12. Balad
  13. HaBayit HaYehudi
  14. Hofesh Calcali
  15. B’Ometz Bishvilcha
  16. HaKalkalit HaHadasha
  17. Tzeirim Bo’arim
  18. Pirate Party
  19. Kol haSviva v’haHai
  20. Da’at Tov vaRa uBrit Shevet Avraham
  21. Nativ
  22. Kol Kol Koveia
  23. Yesh Kivun
  24. Israel Hofsheet
  25. Seder Hadash
  26. HaAtzmaim HaHadashim
  27. Manhigut Hevratit
  28. Reshimat Shloshim Arba’im
  29. Ani v’Ata
  30. Shahar Koah Hevrati
  31. HaLev HaYehudi
  32. Bible Bloc
  33. K’vod haAdam
  34. Anachnu
  35. Tzomet
  36. Tzav haSha’a
  37. Shema Party
  38. United Sons of Covenant
  39. KaMaH – Kidum Ma’amad HaPrat
  40. Koah L’hashpia

Now, let’s go to the November Madness results.  Some aspects of the results were widely predicted, while others (e.g., Meretz not passing the 3.25% election threshold) were not.  We’ve been doing these contests since 2006, and we’ve never had a repeat champion before, but (with 5 elections in the last 4 years) it was bound to happen eventually.  And sure enough, when we had two contestants tie by correctly predicting 113 out of 120 Knesset seats this year, both of them are past champions!  Our top two were March Madness 2020 champion Isaac Brooks Fishman of Washington, Douglass Commonwealth, and March Madness 2021 champion Jonathan Gruenhut of Jerusalem.

To settle this, we had to go to the tiebreakers.  The first tiebreaker question was “Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?”.  Isaac Brooks Fishman picked Balad, and Jonathan Gruenhut picked HaBayit HaYehudi, but neither of them correctly predicted Meretz.

Next we go to the second tiebreaker question: “Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”.  Isaac Brooks Fishman picked K’vod haAdam, and Jonathan Gruenhut picked Yesh Kivun, but neither of them correctly predicted Koah L’hashpia.

So now we go back to the first tiebreaker question, and see who was closest.  Balad and HaBayit Yehudi both failed to make it into the Knesset, but Balad came closer, so Isaac Brooks Fishman is the 2022 November Madness champion (and the first ever two-time champion)!

We asked both top finishers for statements.  Our runner-up, Jonathan Gruenhut, writes (once again):

i think my original suggestion holds up!
“Judge every person favorably (Avot 1:6).”

And our champion, Isaac Brooks Fishman, writes:

I really didn’t want to win this one; one of these days I’d like to be wrong in my pessimism. Support BDS.

So that’s all for this year.  If this Knesset serves its full 4-year term and elections happen as scheduled (which last happened in 1988), we’ll be back on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (which, once again, is one week before the US midterm elections).  If not, then we’ll see you sometime before that!

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Knesset November Madness 2022!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Now that the chagim are over, we’re turning our attention to the upcoming Israeli election (among other upcoming elections).  For a while we were doing this every few months, but now it has been a whole year and a half since Knesset March Madness 2021!  But now it’s time for Knesset November Madness 2022!!!  If you’ve been closely following all the developments leading up to the election, or if you haven’t been following this at all, you’re invited to enter with your predictions!

Once again, here’s how it works:

How to Enter: Go to the November Madness link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 39 parties will win.  All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats.  However, if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 (or 35 NIS) to the organization of your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free to share which organization you chose and why.)  Israeli citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.

The Rules (for the real election): The 40 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the full list of candidates in Hebrew, and a list of the parties in English.  Wikipedia also has partial lists of candidates in English.  On election day (November 1), Israeli citizens will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote.  For example, suppose Seder Hadash wins 1% of the vote, HaKalkalit HaHadasha wins 33%, and HaAtzma’im HaHadashim wins 66%. Then Seder Hadash wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25% threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120 Knesset seats: HaKalkalit HaHadasha gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates on its list are elected), and HaAtzma’im HaHadashim gets 80 seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the HaKalkalit HaHadasha list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically impossible for all 40 parties to win seats in the Knesset.  (We are unclear on what happens if all 40 parties split the vote evenly so that none of them is above the threshold.)

The Rules (for the Knesset November Madness pool): The deadline to enter is Monday, October 31, 2021, at 11:59 pm Israel Time (5:59 pm EDT). When the final election results are published, each entry will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example (HaAtzma’im HaHadashim 80, HaKalkalit HaHadasha 40). I predicted 60 seats for HaKalkalit HaHadasha, 50 for HaAtzma’im HaHadashim, and 10 for Hadash/Ta’al. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats for HaKalkalit HaHadasha and 50 seats for HaAtzma’im HaHadashim.  The entry with the highest score wins!

Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?

The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this one); closest on question 2.

Good luck!!!!!!!!!!!

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Knesset March Madness 2021 results!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Thank you to everyone who participated in Knesset March Madness 2021!  Now that the election results are official, we’re also ready to announce the official March Madness results.

The Democratic Party (no relation to the American party of that name) dropped out, but here are the results for the other 38 parties:

  1. Likud 30
  2. Yesh Atid 17
  3. Shas 9
  4. Blue and White 8
  5. Yaminah 7
  6. Labor 7
  7. United Torah Judaism 7
  8. Yisrael Beiteinu 7
  9. Religious Zionism 6
  10. Joint List 6
  11. New Hope 6
  12. Meretz 6
  13. United Arab List (Ra’am) 4
  14. New Economic Party
  15. Rapei
  16. Pirates
  17. Ani v’Atah
  18. Hatikvah L’Shinui
  19. HaMapatz HaHevrati – Pensioners
  20. Mishpat Tzedek
  21. Tzomet
  22. Am Shalem
  23. Seder Hadash
  24. KaMaH
  25. The Impossible Is Possible
  26. HaLev HaYehudi
  27. Atzmeinu
  28. Bible Bloc Party
  29. Olam Hadash
  30. Brit HaShutafut
  31. The Israelis
  32. Shema
  33. Da’am Green Economy One State
  34. Manhigut Hevratit
  35. Ma’an
  36. Hetz
  37. Anachnu
  38. Kevod HaAdam

Let’s go first to the bonus tiebreaker questions (just for fun, because we didn’t have to use any tiebreakers this time to determine the winner).  On the second tiebreaker question (“Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”), honorable mention goes to April Madness 2019 champion Aaron Weinberg of Washington DC, who successfully picked out Kevod HaAdam from a very crowded field of very minor parties.  Kevod HaAdam finished with 196 votes, just barely behind Anachnu with 220 votes and Hetz with 226 votes.

The first tiebreaker question (“Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?”) was tricky this time.  A lot of people predicted that one or more of the parties that in the end did make it over the threshold were not going to make it over the threshold.  So on this question, we had votes for Ra’am, Meretz, Blue and White, Religious Zionism, etc.  But in the end, everyone who was anywhere close to the threshold reached the threshold; no one just barely missed it.  So the correct answer to this question was the New Economic Party, with 0.79% of the vote (well under the threshold of 3.25%, but well above all the other parties that didn’t make it).  Honorable mention goes to March Madness 2020 champion Isaac Brooks Fishman of Washington, D.C., who (along with our winner and runner-up; see below) correctly picked the New Economic Party.

So that leads us into the overall results!  As we said above, a lot of competitors fell short because they predicted that some of these parties weren’t going to reach the threshold, even though all 13 of these party lists made it into the Knesset.  This is the largest number of party lists to be elected to the Knesset since the 2003 election (when the threshold was only 2%, so it was easier for smaller parties to get in). (That only counts party lists at the time of the election, and doesn’t account for Knesset factions splitting up after the election.)  Our top finishers correctly predicted that all 13 parties would be elected, and made their picks accordingly.

In second place, congratulations to Eliana Fishman of Washington DC, who correctly predicted 108 out of 120 Knesset seats!  We asked her for a statement, and she writes:

I urge everyone to register for Hishbati: A Non- and Anti- Zionist Beit Midrash, because Israeli election results are easier to digest once you’ve rejected Zionism!

And in first place, one point ahead with a score of 109, congratulations to our 2021 March Madness champion Jonathan Gruenhut of Jerusalem!!!  We also asked him for a statement, and he wrote (back on Friday, when he first found out that this was the way things were going):

I’m too overwhelmed with shabbat/Pesach prep to worry about partisan politics right now.  We’ll see if anyone can form a coalition.

In the meantime, as always, judge every person favorably (Avot 1:6).

Thanks again to everyone for playing!  If this election results in a stable government that lasts its full 4-year term (LOL), we’ll see you again on Tuesday, November 11, 2025!  Otherwise, keep watching this space to participate in the next Madness contest sometime sooner!

Sunday, March 07, 2021

Knesset March Madness 2021!

 (Crossposted to Jewschool.)

It has been an entire year since the last Israeli election!  This is the longest such gap since three elections ago!  But all things must come to an end, and so the next election is coming up in about two weeks.  That means that (following March Madness 2020, September Madness 2019, April Madness 2019, and all their predecessors) it's time for Knesset March Madness 2021!!!!  If you're feeling excited about the election, this is your chance to show that excitement by entering this prediction contest!  Or if you're feeling more depressed or fearful, this is your chance to distract yourself by pretending it's all a game.  Either way, all are invited to submit your predictions!

For the fourth time in two years, here's how it works:

How to Enter: Go to the March Madness link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 39 parties will win.  All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats.  However, if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 (or 33 NIS) to the organization of your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free to share which organization you chose and why.)  Israeli citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.

The Rules (for the real election): The 39 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the full list of candidates in Hebrew, and a list of the parties in English (linking to those same candidate lists in Hebrew).  Wikipedia also has partial lists of candidates in English.  On election day (March 23), Israeli citizens will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote.  For example, suppose Anachnu wins 1% of the vote, Atzmeinu wins 33%, and Ani v'Atah wins 66%. Then Anachnu wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25% threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120 Knesset seats: Atzmeinu gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates on its list are elected), and Ani v'Atah gets 80 seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the Atzmeinu list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically impossible for all 39 parties to win seats in the Knesset.

The Rules (for the Knesset March Madness pool): The deadline to enter is Monday, March 22, 2021, at 11:59 pm Israel Time (5:59 pm EDT). When the final election results are published, each entry will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example (Ani v'Atah 80, Atzmeinu 40). I predicted 60 seats for Atzmeinu, 50 for Ani v'Atah, and 10 for The Impossible Is Possible. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats for Atzmeinu and 50 seats for Ani v'Atah.  The entry with the highest score wins!

Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?

The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this one); closest on question 2.

Good luck!!!!!!!!!!!

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Knesset March Madness results!

(Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Well, NCAA March Madness may be proceeding this year without fans in the stands, but Knesset March Madness 2020 is still proceeding normally!

The election results are now official.  Tzomet dropped out before the election, but here are the results for the other 29 parties:
  1. Likud 36
  2. Blue and White 33
  3. Joint List 15
  4. Shas 9
  5. United Torah Judaism 7
  6. Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7
  7. Yisrael Beiteinu 7
  8. Yaminah 6
  9. Otzmah Yehudit
  10. Otzmah Liberalit-Kalkalit
  11. Kol HaNashim
  12. Pirates
  13. Mishpat Tzedek
  14. Yisraelist – Zechuyoteinu B’Koleinu
  15. Ani V’Atah
  16. (tie) HaBerit HaMeshutefet
  17. (tie) Seder Hadash
  18. Koach Lehashpia
  19. Mitkademet
  20. Da’am Green Economy One State
  21. HaLev HaYehudi
  22. Shema
  23. Bible Bloc Party
  24. KaMaH
  25. Adom Lavan
  26. HaHazon
  27. Manhigut Hevratit
  28. Kevod HaAdam
  29. Peulah L’Yisrael
As we keep repeating essentially the same election over and over, the top scores in the prediction contests keep getting higher and higher, as the results become more and more predictable.  But there were still no perfect scores this time – there were still some changes from last time that participants had to predict (e.g. the gains for Likud and the Joint List, and the losses for Labor-Gesher-Meretz).

But before we get there, let’s talk about the tiebreaker questions.  Once again, the first question (“Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?”) was very straightforward.  Otzmah Yehudit wasn’t close in either direction: it came in far below the threshold to get into the Knesset, but far above any of the other unsuccessful parties.  Most of our entrants got this one right (though some predicted that Otzmah Yehudit would make it into the Knesset).  The second question (“Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”) was harder.  No one predicted the “winner”, Peulah L’Yisrael (which didn’t run in the previous election), or the “runner-up”, Kevod HaAdam.  So honorable mention goes to DMH in DC, and Eliana Fishman in Washington DC, who both picked perennial last-place finisher Manhigut Hevratit, which got the fewest votes of any party that anyone picked for this question.

Now to the overall Knesset prediction results!  We had a tie for second place: Eliana Fishman in Washington DC and Samantha Brody in Teveria, Israel, both scored an astonishing 116 out of 120.  So we go to the tiebreaker questions.  Eliana Fishman picked Otzmah Liberalit-Kalkalit (which came in second among the parties that didn’t make it into the Knesset), and Samantha Brody correctly picked Otzmah Yehudit, so Samantha Brody is our runner-up!  Congratulations!

And in first place, Isaac Brooks Fishman in Washington, Douglass Commonwealth, correctly predicted 117 out of 120 Knesset seats, the highest score in the history of these prediction contests!!!  Congratulations!!!!

We asked our champion for a statement, and he writes:
There is no god but God, and Yeshayahu Leibowitz is the Messenger of God. Now for my next prediction: The winner of the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary will be Eric Swalwell.

Thanks to everyone for playing!  If the newly elected 23rd Knesset somehow forms a stable government that manages to last its entire term, then we’ll see you again on Tuesday, November 5, 2024 (yes, that’s the same day as the US elections).  Otherwise, we might do this all over again in a few months!

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Knesset March Madness 2020!!! (sigh)

(Crossposted to Jewschool.)

Do we really have to do this again?  I guess we do, don’t we.   We just had September Madness a few months ago, and April Madness before that, but now Israel is (for the first time ever) approaching its third election in less than a year.  So that means we have to hold another Knesset prediction pool.  Maybe everyone is sick of it at this point, but such is the price of democracy.  But you should totally enter the contest even if you’re not feeling it, because if everyone else decides to sit it out, you can win by default!  Do you have opinions about whether this election is going to turn out the same as the previous two, or different?  Here’s a chance to put your money (no actual money required) where your mouth is.

So here’s how it works, yet again:

How to Enter: Go to the March Madness link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 30 parties will win.  All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats.  However, if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 to the organization of your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free to share which organization you chose and why.)  Israeli citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well, and American Jews are encouraged to vote in the World Zionist Congress election.

The Rules (for the real election): The 30 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the full list of candidates in Hebrew, and a list of the parties in English. On election day (March 2), Israeli citizens will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote.  For example, suppose the Pirate Party wins 1% of the vote, the Bible Bloc Party wins 33%, and Manhigut Hevratit wins 66%. Then the Pirate Party wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25% threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120 Knesset seats: the Bible Bloc Party gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates on its list are elected), and Manhigut Hevratit gets 80 seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the Bible Bloc Party list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically possible for all 30 parties to win seats in the Knesset, but many experts consider this unlikely.

The Rules (for the Knesset March Madness pool): The deadline to enter is Sunday, March 1, 2020, at 11:59 pm Israel Time (4:59 pm EST). When the final election results are published, each entry will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example (Manhigut Hevratit 80, Bible Bloc Party 40). I predicted 60 seats for the Bible Bloc Party, 50 for Manhigut Hevratit, and 10 for KaMaH. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats for the Bible Bloc Party and 50 seats for Manhigut Hevratit.  The entry with the highest score wins!

Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?

The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this one); closest on question 2.

Maybe we’ll put up a post soon with descriptions of all the parties and links to their websites, or maybe we won’t, because it’s mostly the same as last time.

Good luck!!!!

Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Yom tov survey results!


Thanks to everyone who filled out the survey about 1-day and 2-day yom tov!  We received 133 responses, but we should emphasize that we did not employ any sort of scientific sampling methodology, and therefore we cannot assume that the quantitative results can be extrapolated to any particular population.  Indeed, we received some comments expressing this concern:

·        The sample bias of this survey will likely be too large to draw any conclusions.
·        There has likely been a move towards 1-day yom tov over the past 10 years, but I don't know if that can really be attributed to the days of the week. That shift will also likely be over represented in this survey, as people who have made the switch will certainly be more inclined to take the survey and may even be more likely to see the survey.

However, given that the original prediction was nothing more than “This decade … will see lots of 2-day-yom tov people switching over to 1 day” (without a formal definition of “lots”), it is safe to say that this prediction was confirmed.  Beyond that, the qualitative data also provide an interesting snapshot of the diversity of thought and practice around this issue.

The survey was distributed by posting it on this blog (where very few people may have independently seen it without being directed from elsewhere, since the blog is largely inactive), on the author’s Facebook timeline, and in a number of Jewish-themed Facebook groups, and then some people further shared it from there.

The survey defined “yom tov” (for the purposes of this survey) as the festival days of Pesach, Shavuot, Sukkot, and Shemini Atzeret / Simchat Torah (NOT Rosh Hashanah or Yom Kippur).  (One respondent commented “Thank you for noting the survey excludes Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur. I am adamant about observing Yom Kippur for only one day. Does that make me a heretic?”)  It asked respondents whether they did 1 or 2 days of yom tov (or “other”) as of 10 years ago, and whether they do 1 or 2 days of yom tov (or “other”) now, and invited them to comment on any part of this.  (The vague language of “do” was intentional, so as to capture the many ways that people approach yom tov.  We didn’t use language like “observe”, so that respondents wouldn’t get hung up on what counts as “observing” yom tov, and we didn’t ask “How many days of yom tov do you think there are?” because that doesn’t reflect the way that everyone relates to yom tov.)  The survey further asked for respondents’ age, number of children under 18 (10 years ago and now), how they describe themselves Jewishly (10 years ago and now), country of residence (10 years ago and now), and what they do/did (student, employed inside/outside the Jewish community, etc.).

The ways that survey respondents describe themselves Jewishly were all over the map!  In addition to all the standard denominations and the nondenominational labels that one might expect (“postdenominational”, “trad egal”, etc.), here were some other highlights:
·        Non-believing member of a religion: nominally secular but heir to a long tradition that is very meaningful and which I strive to continue
·        Egalish orthoish havurahish frummie
·        Predenominational
·        Observant with minor laxities
·        It’s complicated
·        Somewhere on the halachic spectrum
·        Lazy Hadar alum who will help at your new minyan
·        Short answer: fuck if I know
Long answer: I find myself unsatisfied in any one jewish community and I am trying therefore to find community in many places. I’m working towards engaging in judaism in ways besides just what I grew up with (artistically, spiritually, academically, physically, as a nation, as opposed to just halachically) but halacha is still an important piece of it to me. I have grown increasingly uncomfortable with the way (orthodox) judaism deals with gender and sexuality.
·        [10 years ago] Traditional but egalitarian conservative / [now] Traditional and egalitarian conservative
To the extent possible, we grouped all the responses into four categories: 1→1 (i.e. they did 1 day of yom tov 10 years ago, and do 1 day of yom tov now), 1→2, 2→1, and 2→2.  In most cases, this matched the answers to the questions, but we also coded some of the “other” responses based on the free-response comments.  For example, someone who wrote “I have two seders at the beginning of Pesach, and don't eat chametz for 8 days, but I do one day for all of the other holidays listed” was coded as 1→1; someone else who said they converted within the last 10 years (and therefore wasn’t doing the holidays at all 10 years ago) and has always done 2 days since converting was coded as 2→2.

Out of the 133 responses, there were 10 that we couldn’t place into one of the four groups.  This included some who left one or more of the relevant questions blank, and others whose responses didn’t fit into a box, such as:
·        I’ve vacillated over the years depending on how flexible my job has been to my taking off lots of time. And depending on whether the chagim are on weekdays or not.
·        I did not observe yomim tovim 10 years ago … I went from completely secular, to observing 1 day with a Reform community, to now observing 2 days with a Conservative community
Of the remaining responses, 18 are 1→1, 5 are 1→2, 30 are 2→1, and 70 are 2→2.  Or to put it another way, out of the 123 respondents who were placed into these groups, ten years ago 23 did 1 day and 100 did 2 days, and now 48 do 1 day and 75 do 2 days.  We’ll look at each of these groups on its own.

1→1

18 respondents did 1 day of yom tov 10 years ago and still do 1 day.  Only one of those is in Israel (which is one indication that the sample is limited; Israelis either didn’t see the survey or didn’t think it pertained to them), but some others said they were originally Israeli and have maintained their 1-day practice after moving out of Israel (more than 10 years ago).  Many of the non-Israeli respondents in this category identify as Reform, but not all (one describes themselves as “flexibly traditional”; another identified as “sefardi orthodox/traditional” 10 years ago and “conservative/masorti” now).  Most had relatively little to say about their non-switching, but one wrote:
·        Born and raised Reform, and support 1 day for religious reasons. … I respect others practices, but believe it is wrong to continue to observe 2 days in the diaspora, as the reasons for it are long since gone, and I believe it is important, and mandated,  for us to continually reevaluate certain things.
1→2

5 respondents did 1 day of yom tov 10 years ago and switched to 2 days.  Only one of these moved from Israel to outside Israel (and switched for that reason).  The other 4 respondents (all outside Israel) all have similar trajectories:  They are all under age 23, grew up Reform (and were minors 10 years ago), and are now part of non-Reform communities that do 2 days.

2→1

30 respondents did 2 days of yom tov 10 years ago and switched to 1 day.  9 of these respondents moved to Israel in the last 10 years.  The other 21 are doing 1 day outside Israel.  Unlike the 1→2 switchers, many of the 2→1 switchers do not report a substantial change in the way they label themselves.  Some of their self-descriptions include Conservative, Independent/Conservative/Havurah-y, Non orthodox member of Chabad shul, Orthodox, Reconstructionist, Shomer Mitzvoth Conservative, Traditional, and Traditional-egalitarian.

Here are some of their comments:
·        I changed because (and when) I moved to Israel. Actually, before I *moved* to Israel, I would only keep one day if I happened to be in Israel for that yom tov. By the time I found out that there are those who say visitors should keep two days even in Israel, I had moved there.
·        [from someone else who moved to Israel] It’s very weird
·        My kids moved to public school and 7 missed days in a single month was too much to justify.
·        Having a partner who does only one day definitely has made a difference. :-)
·        I was miserable and stressed by all the missed work/school and I thought observing one day might reinvigorate our practice.
·        Because of community, I treat the second day as a “liturgical yom tov”, but do malakha.
·        After studying Responsa on the topic, I have decided there is no compelling reason to continue to observe Yom Tov Sheni as there is no uncertainty over the days of chag anymore, and I generally find the arguments for "ancestral practice" uncompelling since our world is greatly different then theirs and to claim that we practice Judaism in the same way as it was practiced and understood a thousand years ago is false - this can change like other elements have changed.
·        I’ve never felt particularly attached to two days of yom tov. It’s always felt rather silly to me. But that’s what I grew up with and I didn’t have a good reason to change it. This year I’m working and even with only taking one day off I’ve gone into negative for PTO. I didn’t want to take off more days, and felt no need to.
I will maybe go back next year because (1) there is a lot of jewish community in my area and I would like to spend the hagim at lots of different shuls, and (2) they fall on the weekend
·        It became unsustainable for work to observe two days and I don’t believe it is halachicly required anyway, so I stopped.
·        School and work have made it nearly a requirement to switch
·        We began by holding services on only one day because we could not get a minyan the second day, but counting the second day as yomtov nonetheless.  I found that one day was enough for me, and I don’t intend to go to second-day services if they’re held this year.
·        1. working in the secular world, taking 2 days feels both overly burdensome and unnecessary:
- the "three days on - two days off" work schedule for a month is stressful. It turn into constant catchup.
- imposes burden on my colleagues; I'd otherwise take my time off in different configuration. (eg. week at at time)
- reduces other kinds of vacation I can take from work
- I enjoy yom tov more when it does not feel like a burden. 2 day yom tov feels like a burden.
- Many of my friends who do not work in the Jewish world find the second day to be egregiously burdensome.
2. I believe that the 2 days imposes unnecessary financial hardship and stress for some, given the communal pressure to take two days off.
3. I feel fortunate:
* To be on the same page as my spouse in this practice.
*  To be in a family and community where my practice is known and I'm not marginalized as a result
* I currently do not need to "say yizkor" (for a parent etc). This poses a challenge for second day.
* I work in a company with lots of Jewish people who practice differently, so I do not need to be overly concerned about my personal practice negatively affecting others.
2→2

The remaining 70 respondents did 2 days of yom tov 10 years ago, and still do 2 days of yom tov.  All are outside Israel.  Their comments fell into several categories.  Some expressed surprise or disbelief that the very question was being asked:
·        Out here in diaspora, it's what we do, and always have done. As such, I can't imagine anyone choosing not to "do" the second day, unless they also aren't doing the first day. … If I chose not to "do" the second day but still did the first, I'd be a hypocrite.
·        I'm Jewish and I live in America. How could I change?  … I think this is ridiculous. No one should be switching. If that was an option we'd all switch.
·        We live outside of Israel, seems pretty obvious.
Others explained why they haven’t changed:
·        Why I did not:  I don't have an employment situation that creates outside pressures.  I prefer to keep my practice consistent with the majority of observant folks in my community, who belong to Conservative and Orthodox shuls.  My Conservative synagogue observes second day and needs people to show up to services and participate, and I am a person who can do this.
·        Too important to change!
·        Once Hillel established the calendar, the need for two day Yom Tov was "eliminated", nevertheless the Rabbonim decided to maintain the practice. Nothing significant has changed since that time.
·        I didn't because I had no external pressure to do so.
·        I have changed many other aspects of my life drastically but this feels like a very big step.
And others talked about the possibility of switching:
·        One day I will! But I have so much inertia.
·        I'd definitely be open to a switch if my synagogue switched, but that isn't likely.
·        It’s very difficult to have to sacrifice so much work vacation time on the alter of two day Yom Tovs. When I hear rabbis talking about what can’t be done on Chol HaMoed and what loopholes can be used to work on Yom Tov, I wonder how anyone could have a secular job and NOT work on Yom Tov. If major Poskim had to work in the secular workforce, I wonder if the winds would shift. Also, I think there is a shift among Americans in Israel temporarily to observing one day of Yom Tov only.
·        I haven't changed, but it's become more difficult to maintain
·        I briefly kept 1-day yomtov for 2 years when I had a job/academic schedule that did not allow me enough days off. It felt very much like a compromise, like "this is not my ideal but it's temporary."

Thanks again to everyone who participated!  We’ll see what the future brings.  And in fall 2020, the Tishrei holidays will be on weekends for the first time since 2009!