Monday, February 09, 2009

February Madness averages

Good luck to everyone who entered February Madness 2009! The contest is now closed. We should have preliminary election results by this time tomorrow.

Here are the average predictions among all the entries:
  1. Kadima 24.6
  2. Likud 23.7
  3. Labor 14.9
  4. Yisrael Beytenu 12.5
  5. Shas 10.4
  6. Meretz 7.3
  7. National Union (Ichud Leumi) 5.0
  8. United Torah Judaism 4.0
  9. United Arab List / Ta'al 3.0
  10. HaBayit HaYehudi 2.7
  11. Hadash 2.3
  12. Green Movement / Meimad 2.1
  13. Gil 1.9
  14. Balad 1.8
  15. Greens 1.5
  16. Aleh Yarok 1.4
  17. Holocaust Survivors & Grown-Up Green Leaf 0.6
  18. Strong Israel 0.1
  19. Lev LaOlim 0.1
  20. Tzabar 0.05
  21. Everyone else 0
(Note that these are means, not medians, so one outlier can throw off the average considerably.)

The most popular choice for coming closest but not quite making it was Gil, and the most popular choice for coming in last was Leeder.

We'll see how this compares to the actual results!
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1 comment:

  1. AnonymousFebruary 09, 2009 9:57 PM

    Kadima over Likkud? Avoda/Labour over Yisrael Beitenu? Time will tell and you may be right. But just looking at polls, is this like participating in a fantasy baseball draft with all New Yorkers - and Yankee and Mets players are overrated and picked earlier than they should be? The liberal readers of Mah Rabu foresee a Center-Left government in Israel. B'hatzlacha l'kulam

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