The Israeli election is coming up on February 10! Following up on Mah Rabu’s successul March Madness prediction pool for the 2006 election, Jewschool and Mah Rabu are excited to announce FEBRUARY MADNESS 2009!!! All you have to do to enter is predict the number of Knesset seats that each party will win in the election.
The winner will receive a book of his/her choice from Ben-Yehuda Press. Entrance is free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 to the organization of your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. Israeli citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.
To enter, go to February Madness! The deadline to enter is Monday, February 9, 2009, at 11:59 PM Israel Standard Time (4:59 PM EST).
Here is the official list of parties and candidates. Right now it’s only in Hebrew, but we’ll post a link to the English list when and if they post it. Also, in the next few days we’ll put up a post with descriptions of each of the parties and links to their websites.
The winner will be chosen based on who correctly predicts the greatest number of Knesset seats. For example, if the actual results are Men’s Rights 50, Tzabar 30, Aleh Yarok 20, Leeder 10, and Koach HaKesef 10, and you predicted Men’s Rights 40, Tzabar 40, Aleh Yarok 5, Leeder 5, Koach HaKesef 15, and Lechem 15, then your score would be 90 out of 120 (since you correctly predicted 40 seats for Men’s Rights, 30 for Tzabar, 5 for Aleh Yarok, 5 for Leeder, and 10 for Koach HaKesef). Your predictions must add up to 120 to be a valid entry.
Just for fun, there will be two optional tiebreaker questions:
1. Among the parties that do not meet the threshold for Knesset seats, which one will come the closest?
2. Which party will receive the fewest votes?
Good luck!!!!
Although I avoid making predictions, I do think the Aleh Yarok-Nitzoeli Shoah (Marijuana+Holocaust Survivors) list will get enough votes to get in. The fact that the Pensioners Party got SEVEN seats last time (I happen to be an acquantaince of one of their MK's, he was a minor clerk at the place I work) shows there is a large floating vote of apathetic, turned-off voters that will cast a vote for a joke party that they really don't identify with, and there is no party that is a bigger joke than the bizarre combination of drug-heads and Holocaust survivors. One of their advertisements had Gil Kopatch smoking a joint on Ben-Gurion's grave. Something in such bad taste will be very popular among this population of voters (I did see one of the election ads showing someone pull down his zipper and urinate on camera---something as disgusting as this should also be popular but I turned off the TV before I could see which "political party" put out that atrocity-but maybe they will get in as well).
ReplyDeleteOf course, all this goes to show how degenerate Israeli politics has become. Most voters now realize that it makes no difference who you vote for, the Knesset does not really make the decisions, and they will often do the opposite of what they promise before the election (biggest example is Sharon's destruction of Gush Katif which he explicitly promised he wouldn't do).
I came to Israel 22 years ago and in the first election campaigns I saw there was a lot of excitement, people put up signs in their windows and stickers on their cars, and many people volunteered to be campaign workers (I unfortunately worked for Sharon's election and I regret doing that to this day).
Now there is NOTHING. No stickers, no signs in people's windows and no volunteers.
Israeli democracy is dead. What this will lead to only heaven knows, all I know is that this is a very dangerous situation.
The fact that the Pensioners Party got SEVEN seats last time (I happen to be an acquantaince of one of their MK's, he was a minor clerk at the place I work) shows there is a large floating vote of apathetic, turned-off voters that will cast a vote for a joke party that they really don't identify with
ReplyDeleteI didn't get the impression that the Pensioners Party's support among younger voters was intended as a "joke". Yes, it was a protest vote resulting from disenchantment with the major parties, but I also got the impression that these voters were genuinely concerned about their grandparents and other members of Israel's "Greatest Generation".
Now there is NOTHING. No stickers, no signs in people's windows and no volunteers.
Could this be influenced by the timing of the Gaza war?
How could anyone interpret the election of Gil to 7 seats as "a joke"? I'd rather say it's symptomatic of a populace that has seen to many key issues go unaddressed.
ReplyDeleteTo BZ and BarNavi-
ReplyDeleteThe Pensioners Party is a joke because like all it predecessors, it has accomplished nothing. Like all its predecessors it broke apart into feuding factions. The "predecessors" I am referring to are these one-term parties that make a big slash and then self-destruct. This started in 1977 with the Democratic Movement for Change. It got 15 seats but then almost completely disappeared for the next election (the Shinui part of Prof. Amnon Rubinstein ended up later with MERETZ). They did have some good ideas that were later adopted but politically, they were a total failure. The next was Raful Eitan's TZOMET (not the Rafi Eitan of the Pensioners) who got 8 seats in 1992. Supposedly "right-wing" Peres and Rabin managed to openly bribe, with money, some of them to support Oslo which their own platform opposed. The party disappeared in the next election. The next was the Center Party of Dan Meridor, Dalia Rabin, Yitzhak Mordechai and others. They got 6 seats, accomplished nothing and then disappeared. Shinui was the next, in 1999 getting 6 and in 2003, 15 seats. They claimed they reprensented the anti-religious Middle Class. They also promised a lot, achieved very little, then broke up among much rancor, finger pointing, police investigations and disappeared completely in 2006.
Another example of a "fad" party like these I described was the one-shot big victory of SHAS in 1999 in the wake of the conviction of Aryeh Deri. They got got 17 seats which is the most any non-ruling party ever got. Now, bear in mind that they are a solid party with 10-11 seats each time representing a particular, solid constituency. However, the extreme emotions generated in 1999 got them up to 17. But, like the other examples I gave, they didn't accomplish anything with their extra power that they didn't get with their smaller, natural base.
Same with the Pensioners. They have done almost nothing with their 7 seats. The party was set up to be a satellite front for Sharon's Kadima because the head was an old crony of Sharon's name Rafi Eitan. There never was any expectation that it would be anything else. Like I said, many of its MK's are non-entities who were not loyal to the party's platform.
Why do these parties get in, in the first place? Because the people who vote for them are making a protest. They don't really expect them to do anything. The MK's are all non-entities, yes-men who are dependent on the head of the party since they are not based on any real democratic, popular base. If they are not loyal, they can be bougth off, like in the case of Tzomet.
I would place the current popularity of Avigdor Liebermans "Israel Beiteinu" in the same category. He does also have a solid base of support from Russians of maybe 8 seats. All the others are coming from people who are voting emotionally because of the rabble-rousing he is doing. I think they realize that even if he gets 16 seats, he won't be able to implement the anti-Arab proposals he is making.
Most Israelis are tired of the existing political parties. The rate of participation of voters has declined from 85% 20 years ago to 60% in 2006. Most still vote for them out of inertia, but as I have shown there are a lot of floating voters who cast a protest vote for a fly-by-night party. You are correct that the platform of the Pensioner's Party does have good things in it but there never was any chance of most of it being implemented, no matter how many seats they got. Rafi Eitan wanted to help his pal Sharon so they set up this dummy party and it worked for the one Knesset term it is getting. It will now fade into history, even if this time they do manage to get enough to get 2 seats this time as well, though I doubt it.
Like I said, I think the Marinjuana-Holocaust survivors party is the one to watch. And even if they get in, Marijuana will not be legalized and the MK's from that party will be the first to admit it.
Another example of a "fad" party like these I described was the one-shot big victory of SHAS in 1999 in the wake of the conviction of Aryeh Deri. They got got 17 seats which is the most any non-ruling party ever got.
ReplyDeleteI thought the reason for this was the short-lived system of direct elections for prime minister, which enabled voting for both Shas and Netanyahu.