Sunday, April 21, 2019

April Madness results!

Thanks to all who participated in April Madness 2019!

Here are the final election results:
  1. Likud 35
  2. Blue & White 35
  3. Shas 8
  4. United Torah Judaism 8
  5. Hadash-Ta'al 6
  6. Labor 6
  7. Yisrael Beiteinu 5
  8. Union of Right-Wing Parties 5
  9. Meretz 4
  10. Kulanu 4
  11. United Arab List (Ra'am)-Balad 4
  12. New Right
  13. Zehut
  14. Gesher
  15. Betach - Social Security
  16. Arab List
  17. Social Justice
  18. Magen
  19. Justice for All
  20. Tzomet
  21. Yashar
  22. Zechuyoteinu B'Koleinu
  23. Older Citizens' Party
  24. Kol Yisrael Achim / Pe'ulah L'Yisrael
  25. Pirate Party
  26. Pashut Ahavah
  27. Eretz Yisrael Shelanu
  28. Na Nach
  29. Mehatchalah
  30. Hatikvah L'Shinui
  31. Kalkalah Yerukah - Medinah Achat
  32. Education
  33. Achrayut Lameyasdim
  34. Kevod HaAdam
  35. Shavim
  36. Manhigut Hevratit
  37. Ani v'Atah
  38. Mifleget HaGush HaTanachi
  39. Ichud B'nei HaB'rit
  40. B'rit Olam
Even though the broad strokes of the results (the fraction of votes that went to the Likud-led coalition vs. everyone else) look very similar to other recent elections, there were still plenty of surprises at the individual party level.  As a result, everyone had a harder time making predictions, and the top scores this time were noticeably lower than in past prediction pools.  For example, literally no one (who entered April Madness) predicted that the New Right wouldn't make the threshold.  For the tiebreaker question that asked "Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?", the overwhelming choice was Gesher, and there were a few votes for Yisrael Beiteinu, Zehut, and Kulanu, but none for the New Right.

All that said, we had two entrants who tied for the winning score, correctly predicting 105 out of 120 Knesset seats: Melanie M in California, and Aaron Weinberg in Washington DC.  Congratulations to both!  What do they have in common?  They were the first two people to complete their contest entries.  Those who had access to more recent poll results did worse.  The earlier polls showed Blue & White riding high, before the pendulum started swinging back to the Likud.  But those early polls were correct - Blue & White did in fact win a lot of seats!  It's just that Likud also won the same number.  Both parties won 35 seats, which is unusually high for the modern era.  The last time any one party won this many seats was in 2003, when the Likud under Ariel Sharon won 38, and the last time before that was Yitzchak Rabin's Labor party in 1992 (44 seats).

So to pick a winner, we'll have to go to the tiebreaker questions.  For the first tiebreaker question ("Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?"), both finalists picked Gesher, which means that we'll go to the second tiebreaker: "Which party will get the FEWEST votes?"  Excluding parties that officially dropped out before the election, the "winner" was B'rit Olam (which was also in last place for number of candidates running on their list: only 1).  Honorable mention to Sarah Nemzer Kohl in Jerusalem, who successfully predicted this.  So what did our finalists pick?  Melanie M predicted Education, which finished with 518 votes, and Aaron Weinberg predicted Shavim, which finished with 401 votes.  This means that Aaron Weinberg is our 2019 April Madness champion!  Congratulations!!!

We asked him for a statement, and he said:
I think my only message is that this election makes the dangerous possibility of annexation even more likely and I urge everyone to get involved with any organization or cause that they believe can help prevent that scary possibility from ever becoming reality.

 Thanks again to everyone for playing!  We'll see you again on Tuesday, October 31, 2023, unless by some chance early elections are called (which has been known to happen before).

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