Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Phish 6/4/09 Jones Beach: predictions

A Song I Heard The Ocean Sing
The Wedge
Fast Enough For You
Scents and Subtle Sounds
The Divided Sky

Walls of the Cave
The Lizards
Billy Breathes
Col. Forbin's Ascent
The Famous Mockingbird
Run Like An Antelope
Golgi Apparatus

The Mango Song

(All but three songs on this list have not been played since the second hiatus.)


  1. rip that setlist off the deer creek shows of '03?????

  2. I think getting 3 is better than chance...

  3. Anonymous-
    How do you figure? The 19 songs on this list include 7 that were played during that three-night run (out of a total of 51), or an average of 2.33 per show. That's even fewer songs in common than this prediction list had with the actual show. I don't think this list has more in common with those Deer Creek shows than with a typical relatively recent Phish show chosen at random.

    (And I don't think I've ever heard those Deer Creek shows, though now I want to.)

  4. Desh-
    What's "chance"? Selecting songs at random, equally weighted, from the entire Phish catalog? The problem with that is that there is a long tail -- 41% of the songs that Phish has played have only been played once (many of these are covers).

    So should the songs be weighted based on lifetime percentages? Then this weights deceptively toward songs that have been around longer.

    Also, Phish shows are not independent events. For example, Phish never repeats a song between multiple shows at the same venue on the same tour. So before last night's show, You Enjoy Myself may have had a 39% probability of being played at last night's show (or 28% if you just consider data from 2002 on), but it now has a 0% probability of being played at tonight's show.

    I think we need Nate Silver on this.