tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-126106102024-03-14T03:31:56.327-04:00Mah Rabu מה רבוThoughts about Torah, physics, politics, the independent Jewish scene, education, music, DC, and the intersections of all those areas.
Contact: mahrabu at gmail dot comBZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.comBlogger837125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-3900317235767428562022-11-09T16:08:00.001-05:002022-11-09T16:08:11.407-05:00November Madness 2022 results!<p> (Crossposted to <a href="https://jewschool.com/november-madness-2022-results-173859">Jewschool</a>.)</p><div class="content post-excerpt entry-content clearfix">
<p>Thanks to all who participated in <a href="https://jewschool.com/knesset-november-madness-2022-173831">Knesset November Madness 2022</a>! The <a href="https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/">final election results</a>
are in, so we’re ready to announce the November Madness results. There
is a lot to say substantively about what happened in this Israeli
election (and in the American elections, where the votes are still being
counted), but we’re going to try to avoid saying those things here, and
instead focus only on the prediction contest.</p>
<p>The final results were:</p>
<ol><li><strong>Likud 32</strong></li><li><strong>Yesh Atid 24</strong></li><li><strong>Religious Zionism / Otzmah Yehudit 14</strong></li><li><strong>HaMahaneh HaMamlachti 12</strong></li><li><strong>Shas 11</strong></li><li><strong>United Torah Judaism 7</strong></li><li><strong>Yisrael Beiteinu 6</strong></li><li><strong>Ra’am (United Arab List) 5</strong></li><li><strong>Hadash-Ta’al 5</strong></li><li><strong>Labor 4</strong></li><li>Meretz</li><li>Balad</li><li>HaBayit HaYehudi</li><li>Hofesh Calcali</li><li>B’Ometz Bishvilcha</li><li>HaKalkalit HaHadasha</li><li>Tzeirim Bo’arim</li><li>Pirate Party</li><li>Kol haSviva v’haHai</li><li>Da’at Tov vaRa uBrit Shevet Avraham</li><li>Nativ</li><li>Kol Kol Koveia</li><li>Yesh Kivun</li><li>Israel Hofsheet</li><li>Seder Hadash</li><li>HaAtzmaim HaHadashim</li><li>Manhigut Hevratit</li><li>Reshimat Shloshim Arba’im</li><li>Ani v’Ata</li><li>Shahar Koah Hevrati</li><li>HaLev HaYehudi</li><li>Bible Bloc</li><li>K’vod haAdam</li><li>Anachnu</li><li>Tzomet</li><li>Tzav haSha’a</li><li>Shema Party</li><li>United Sons of Covenant</li><li>KaMaH – Kidum Ma’amad HaPrat</li><li>Koah L’hashpia</li></ol>
<p>Now, let’s go to the November Madness results. Some aspects of the
results were widely predicted, while others (e.g., Meretz not passing
the 3.25% election threshold) were not. We’ve been doing these contests
since 2006, and we’ve never had a repeat champion before, but (with 5
elections in the last 4 years) it was bound to happen eventually. And
sure enough, when we had two contestants tie by correctly predicting 113
out of 120 Knesset seats this year, <strong>both</strong> of them are past champions! Our top two were March Madness 2020 champion <a href="https://youtu.be/j5a0jTc9S10"><strong>Isaac Brooks Fishman</strong></a> of Washington, Douglass Commonwealth, and March Madness 2021 champion <strong>Jonathan Gruenhut </strong>of Jerusalem.</p>
<p>To settle this, we had to go to the tiebreakers. The first
tiebreaker question was “Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the
Knesset, which will come closest?”. Isaac Brooks Fishman picked Balad,
and Jonathan Gruenhut picked HaBayit HaYehudi, but neither of them
correctly predicted Meretz.</p>
<p>Next we go to the second tiebreaker question: “Which party will get
the FEWEST votes?”. Isaac Brooks Fishman picked K’vod haAdam, and
Jonathan Gruenhut picked Yesh Kivun, but neither of them correctly
predicted Koah L’hashpia.</p>
<p>So now we go back to the first tiebreaker question, and see who was
closest. Balad and HaBayit Yehudi both failed to make it into the
Knesset, but Balad came closer, so <strong>Isaac Brooks Fishman</strong> is the 2022 November Madness champion (and the first ever two-time champion)!</p>
<p>We asked both top finishers for statements. Our runner-up, Jonathan Gruenhut, writes (once again):</p>
<blockquote><p>i think my original suggestion holds up!<br />
“Judge every person favorably (Avot 1:6).”</p></blockquote>
<p>And our champion, Isaac Brooks Fishman, writes:</p>
<blockquote><p>I really didn’t want to win this one; one of these days I’d like to be wrong in my pessimism. Support BDS.</p></blockquote>
<p>So that’s all for this year. If this Knesset serves its full 4-year
term and elections happen as scheduled (which last happened in 1988),
we’ll be back on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (which, once again, is one
week before the US midterm elections). If not, then we’ll see you
sometime before that!</p>
</div><p></p>BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-87847812404886732562022-10-19T01:50:00.001-04:002022-10-19T01:50:10.347-04:00Knesset November Madness 2022!<p> (Crossposted to <a href="https://jewschool.com/knesset-november-madness-2022-173831">Jewschool</a>.)</p><div class="content post-excerpt entry-content clearfix">
<p>Now that the chagim are over, we’re turning our
attention to the upcoming Israeli election (among other upcoming
elections). For a while we were doing this every few months, but now it
has been a whole year and a half since <a href="https://jewschool.com/knesset-march-madness-2021-172571">Knesset March Madness 2021</a>! But now it’s time for <strong>Knesset November Madness 2022!!! </strong>If
you’ve been closely following all the developments leading up to the
election, or if you haven’t been following this at all, you’re invited
to enter with your predictions!</p>
<p>Once again, here’s how it works:</p>
<p><b>How to Enter:</b> Go to the <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/8PBS8WG">November Madness</a>
link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 39
parties will win. All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is
allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons
discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and
unlikely that a party will win 3 seats. However, if you choose to hedge
your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that
is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a
suggested donation of $10 (or 35 NIS) to the organization of your choice
dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free
to share which organization you chose and why.) Israeli citizens are
encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.</p>
<p><b>The Rules (for the real election):</b> The 40 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the <a href="https://www.gov.il/he/Departments/Guides/candidates-lists-25">full list of candidates in Hebrew</a>, and a list of the parties in <a href="https://www.gov.il/en/Departments/Guides/candidates-lists-25">English</a>. Wikipedia also has <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_lists_for_the_2022_Israeli_legislative_election">partial lists of candidates</a>
in English. On election day (November 1), Israeli citizens will go to
polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for
individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote
will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote.
For example, suppose Seder Hadash wins 1% of the vote, HaKalkalit
HaHadasha wins 33%, and HaAtzma’im HaHadashim wins 66%. Then Seder
Hadash wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25%
threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120
Knesset seats: HaKalkalit HaHadasha gets 40 seats (so the top 40
candidates on its list are elected), and HaAtzma’im HaHadashim gets 80
seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special
elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the
HaKalkalit HaHadasha list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically
impossible for all 40 parties to win seats in the Knesset. (We are
unclear on what happens if all 40 parties split the vote evenly so that
none of them is above the threshold.)</p>
<p><b>The Rules (for the Knesset November Madness pool):</b> The
deadline to enter is Monday, October 31, 2021, at 11:59 pm Israel Time
(5:59 pm EDT). When the final election results are published, each entry
will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted
correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example
(HaAtzma’im HaHadashim 80, HaKalkalit HaHadasha 40). I predicted 60
seats for HaKalkalit HaHadasha, 50 for HaAtzma’im HaHadashim, and 10 for
Hadash/Ta’al. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats
for HaKalkalit HaHadasha and 50 seats for HaAtzma’im HaHadashim. The
entry with the highest score wins!</p>
<p>Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:<br />
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?<br />
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?</p>
<p>The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on
question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you
picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this
one); closest on question 2.</p>
<p>Good luck!!!!!!!!!!!</p>
</div><p></p>BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-69589980308545800832021-03-30T23:42:00.000-04:002021-03-30T23:42:03.545-04:00Knesset March Madness 2021 results!<p> (Crossposted to <a href="https://jewschool.com/2021/03/172738/knesset-march-madness-2021-results/">Jewschool</a>.)</p><p>Thank you to everyone who participated in <a href="https://jewschool.com/2021/03/172571/knesset-march-madness-2021/">Knesset March Madness 2021</a>! Now that the <a href="https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/">election results</a> are official, we’re also ready to announce the official March Madness results.</p>
<p>The Democratic Party (no relation to the American party of that name)
dropped out, but here are the results for the other 38 parties:</p>
<ol><li><strong>Likud 30</strong></li><li><strong>Yesh Atid 17</strong></li><li><strong>Shas 9</strong></li><li><strong>Blue and White 8</strong></li><li><strong>Yaminah 7</strong></li><li><strong>Labor 7</strong></li><li><strong>United Torah Judaism 7</strong></li><li><strong>Yisrael Beiteinu 7</strong></li><li><strong>Religious Zionism 6</strong></li><li><strong>Joint List 6</strong></li><li><strong>New Hope 6</strong></li><li><strong>Meretz 6</strong></li><li><strong>United Arab List (Ra’am) 4</strong></li><li>New Economic Party</li><li>Rapei</li><li>Pirates</li><li>Ani v’Atah</li><li>Hatikvah L’Shinui</li><li>HaMapatz HaHevrati – Pensioners</li><li>Mishpat Tzedek</li><li>Tzomet</li><li>Am Shalem</li><li>Seder Hadash</li><li>KaMaH</li><li>The Impossible Is Possible</li><li>HaLev HaYehudi</li><li>Atzmeinu</li><li>Bible Bloc Party</li><li>Olam Hadash</li><li>Brit HaShutafut</li><li>The Israelis</li><li>Shema</li><li>Da’am Green Economy One State</li><li>Manhigut Hevratit</li><li>Ma’an</li><li>Hetz</li><li>Anachnu</li><li>Kevod HaAdam</li></ol>
<p>Let’s go first to the bonus tiebreaker questions (just for fun,
because we didn’t have to use any tiebreakers this time to determine the
winner). On the second tiebreaker question (“Which party will get the
FEWEST votes?”), honorable mention goes to April Madness 2019 champion <strong>Aaron Weinberg</strong>
of Washington DC, who successfully picked out Kevod HaAdam from a very
crowded field of very minor parties. Kevod HaAdam finished with 196
votes, just barely behind Anachnu with 220 votes and Hetz with 226
votes.</p>
<p>The first tiebreaker question (“Of the parties that do NOT win seats
in the Knesset, which will come closest?”) was tricky this time. A lot
of people predicted that one or more of the parties that in the end did
make it over the threshold were not going to make it over the
threshold. So on this question, we had votes for Ra’am, Meretz, Blue
and White, Religious Zionism, etc. But in the end, everyone who was
anywhere close to the threshold reached the threshold; no one just
barely missed it. So the correct answer to this question was the New
Economic Party, with 0.79% of the vote (well under the threshold of
3.25%, but well above all the other parties that didn’t make it).
Honorable mention goes to March Madness 2020 champion <strong><a href="https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poets/william-blake">Isaac Brooks Fishman </a></strong>of Washington, D.C., who (along with our winner and runner-up; see below) correctly picked the New Economic Party.</p>
<p>So that leads us into the overall results! As we said above, a lot
of competitors fell short because they predicted that some of these
parties weren’t going to reach the threshold, even though all 13 of
these party lists made it into the Knesset. This is the largest number
of party lists to be elected to the Knesset since the 2003 election
(when the threshold was only 2%, so it was easier for smaller parties to
get in). (That only counts party lists at the time of the election, and
doesn’t account for Knesset factions splitting up after the election.)
Our top finishers correctly predicted that all 13 parties would be
elected, and made their picks accordingly.</p>
<p>In second place, congratulations to <a href="https://tinyurl.com/Hishbati"><strong>Eliana Fishman</strong></a> of Washington DC, who correctly predicted 108 out of 120 Knesset seats! We asked her for a statement, and she writes:</p>
<blockquote><p>I urge everyone to register for Hishbati: A Non- and
Anti- Zionist Beit Midrash, because Israeli election results are easier
to digest once you’ve rejected Zionism!</p></blockquote>
<p>And in first place, one point ahead with a score of 109, congratulations to our 2021 March Madness champion <strong>Jonathan Gruenhut</strong>
of Jerusalem!!! We also asked him for a statement, and he wrote (back
on Friday, when he first found out that this was the way things were
going):</p>
<blockquote><p>I’m too overwhelmed with shabbat/Pesach prep to worry
about partisan politics right now. We’ll see if anyone can form a
coalition.</p>
<p>In the meantime, as always, judge every person favorably <span>(<a aria-controls="sefaria-popup" class="sefaria-ref" data-ref="Avot 1:6" href="https://www.sefaria.org/Pirkei_Avot.1.6?lang=he-en&utm_source=jewschool.com&utm_medium=sefaria_linker" target="_blank">Avot 1:6</a></span>).</p></blockquote>
<p>Thanks again to everyone for playing! If this election results in a
stable government that lasts its full 4-year term (LOL), we’ll see you
again on Tuesday, November 11, 2025! Otherwise, keep watching this
space to participate in the next Madness contest sometime sooner!</p>BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-88763806128283595812021-03-07T18:07:00.003-05:002021-03-07T18:07:29.324-05:00Knesset March Madness 2021!<p> (Crossposted to <a href="https://jewschool.com/2021/03/172571/knesset-march-madness-2021/">Jewschool</a>.)</p><p>It has been an entire year since the last Israeli election! This is the longest such gap since three elections ago! But all things must come to an end, and so the next election is coming up in about two weeks. That means that (following <a href="https://jewschool.com/2020/02/171895/knesset-march-madness-2020-sigh/">March Madness 2020</a>, <a href="https://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2019/08/knesset-september-madness-2019.html">September Madness 2019</a>, <a href="https://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2019/03/knesset-april-madness-2019.html">April Madness 2019</a>, and all their predecessors) it's time for <strong>Knesset March Madness 2021!!!! </strong>If you're feeling excited about the election, this is your chance to show that excitement by entering this prediction contest! Or if you're feeling more depressed or fearful, this is your chance to distract yourself by pretending it's all a game. Either way, all are invited to submit your predictions!</p><p>For the fourth time in two years, here's how it works:</p><p><b>How to Enter:</b> Go to the <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/WXVWX3X">March Madness</a> link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 39 parties will win. All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats. However, if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 (or 33 NIS) to the organization of your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free to share which organization you chose and why.) Israeli citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.</p><p><b>The Rules (for the real election):</b> The 39 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the <a href="https://bechirot24.bechirot.gov.il/election/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">full list of candidates in Hebrew</a>, and a list of the parties in <a href="https://bechirot24.bechirot.gov.il/election/English/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">English</a> (linking to those same candidate lists in Hebrew). Wikipedia also has <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_lists_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election">partial lists of candidates</a> in English. On election day (March 23), Israeli citizens will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote. For example, suppose Anachnu wins 1% of the vote, Atzmeinu wins 33%, and Ani v'Atah wins 66%. Then Anachnu wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25% threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120 Knesset seats: Atzmeinu gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates on its list are elected), and Ani v'Atah gets 80 seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the Atzmeinu list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically impossible for all 39 parties to win seats in the Knesset.</p><p><b>The Rules (for the Knesset March Madness pool):</b> The deadline to enter is Monday, March 22, 2021, at 11:59 pm Israel Time (5:59 pm EDT). When the final election results are published, each entry will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example (Ani v'Atah 80, Atzmeinu 40). I predicted 60 seats for Atzmeinu, 50 for Ani v'Atah, and 10 for The Impossible Is Possible. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats for Atzmeinu and 50 seats for Ani v'Atah. The entry with the highest score wins!</p><p>Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:<br />1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?<br />2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?</p><p>The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this one); closest on question 2.</p><p>Good luck!!!!!!!!!!!</p>BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-10585526277522140772020-03-12T14:43:00.000-04:002020-03-12T14:43:24.878-04:00Knesset March Madness results!(Crossposted to <a href="https://jewschool.com/2020/03/172030/knesset-march-madness-results/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
Well, NCAA March Madness may be proceeding this year <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/ncaa-president-mark-emmerts-statement-limiting-attendance-ncaa-events">without fans in the stands</a>, but <a href="https://jewschool.com/2020/02/171895/knesset-march-madness-2020-sigh/">Knesset March Madness 2020</a> is still proceeding normally!<br />
<br />
The <a href="https://votes23.bechirot.gov.il/">election results</a> are now official. Tzomet dropped out before the election, but here are the results for the other 29 parties:<br />
<ol>
<li><strong>Likud 36</strong></li>
<li><strong>Blue and White 33</strong></li>
<li><strong>Joint List 15</strong></li>
<li><strong>Shas 9</strong></li>
<li><strong>United Torah Judaism 7</strong></li>
<li><strong>Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7</strong></li>
<li><strong>Yisrael Beiteinu 7</strong></li>
<li><strong>Yaminah 6</strong></li>
<li>Otzmah Yehudit</li>
<li>Otzmah Liberalit-Kalkalit</li>
<li>Kol HaNashim</li>
<li>Pirates</li>
<li>Mishpat Tzedek</li>
<li>Yisraelist – Zechuyoteinu B’Koleinu</li>
<li>Ani V’Atah</li>
<li>(tie) HaBerit HaMeshutefet</li>
<li>(tie) Seder Hadash</li>
<li>Koach Lehashpia</li>
<li>Mitkademet</li>
<li>Da’am Green Economy One State</li>
<li>HaLev HaYehudi</li>
<li>Shema</li>
<li>Bible Bloc Party</li>
<li>KaMaH</li>
<li>Adom Lavan</li>
<li>HaHazon</li>
<li>Manhigut Hevratit</li>
<li>Kevod HaAdam</li>
<li>Peulah L’Yisrael</li>
</ol>
As we keep repeating essentially the same election over and over, the
top scores in the prediction contests keep getting higher and higher,
as the results become more and more predictable. But there were still
no perfect scores this time – there were still some changes from last
time that participants had to predict (e.g. the gains for Likud and the
Joint List, and the losses for Labor-Gesher-Meretz).<br />
<br />
But before we get there, let’s talk about the tiebreaker questions.
Once again, the first question (“Of the parties that do NOT win seats in
the Knesset, which will come closest?”) was very straightforward.
Otzmah Yehudit wasn’t close in either direction: it came in far below
the threshold to get into the Knesset, but far above any of the other
unsuccessful parties. Most of our entrants got this one right (though
some predicted that Otzmah Yehudit would make it into the Knesset). The
second question (“Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”) was harder.
No one predicted the “winner”, Peulah L’Yisrael (which didn’t run in
the previous election), or the “runner-up”, Kevod HaAdam. So honorable
mention goes to <strong>DMH</strong> in DC, and <strong>Eliana Fishman</strong>
in Washington DC, who both picked perennial last-place finisher
Manhigut Hevratit, which got the fewest votes of any party that anyone
picked for this question.<br />
<br />
Now to the overall Knesset prediction results! We had a tie for second place: <strong>Eliana Fishman</strong> in Washington DC and <strong>Samantha Brody</strong>
in Teveria, Israel, both scored an astonishing 116 out of 120. So we
go to the tiebreaker questions. Eliana Fishman picked Otzmah
Liberalit-Kalkalit (which came in second among the parties that didn’t
make it into the Knesset), and Samantha Brody correctly picked Otzmah
Yehudit, so <a href="http://lamedisrael.com/"><strong>Samantha Brody</strong></a> is our runner-up! Congratulations!<br />
<br />
And in first place, <strong>Isaac Brooks Fishman</strong> in
Washington, Douglass Commonwealth, correctly predicted 117 out of 120
Knesset seats, the highest score in the history of these prediction
contests!!! Congratulations!!!!<br />
<br />
We asked our champion for a statement, and he writes:<br />
<blockquote>
There is no god but God, and Yeshayahu Leibowitz is the
Messenger of God. Now for my next prediction: The winner of the 2020
Democratic Presidential Primary will be Eric Swalwell.</blockquote>
<br />
Thanks to everyone for playing! If the newly elected 23rd Knesset
somehow forms a stable government that manages to last its entire term,
then we’ll see you again on Tuesday, November 5, 2024 (yes, that’s the
same day as the US elections). Otherwise, we might do this all over
again in a few months!BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-24660248225496321002020-02-11T23:37:00.001-05:002020-02-11T23:37:04.382-05:00Knesset March Madness 2020!!! (sigh)(Crossposted to <a href="https://jewschool.com/2020/02/171895/knesset-march-madness-2020-sigh/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
Do we really have to do this again? I guess we do, don’t we. We just had <a href="https://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2019/08/knesset-september-madness-2019.html">September Madness</a> a few months ago, and <a href="https://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2019/03/knesset-april-madness-2019.html">April Madness</a>
before that, but now Israel is (for the first time ever) approaching
its third election in less than a year. So that means we have to hold
another Knesset prediction pool. Maybe everyone is sick of it at this
point, but such is the price of democracy. But you should totally enter
the contest even if you’re not feeling it, because if everyone else
decides to sit it out, you can win by default! Do you have opinions
about whether this election is going to turn out the same as the
previous two, or different? Here’s a chance to put your money (no
actual money required) where your mouth is.<br />
<br />
So here’s how it works, yet again:<br />
<br />
<b>How to Enter:</b> Go to the <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/XYTC5J7">March Madness</a>
link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 30
parties will win. All predictions must be non-negative integers (0 is
allowed), and your predictions must add up to 120. (For reasons
discussed below, it is impossible for a party to win 1 or 2 seats, and
unlikely that a party will win 3 seats. However, if you choose to hedge
your bets and guess that a given party will win 1, 2, or 3 seats, that
is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is free, but there is a
suggested donation of $10 to the organization of your choice dedicated
to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win, feel free to share
which organization you chose and why.) Israeli citizens are encouraged
to vote in the actual election as well, and American Jews are encouraged
to vote in the <a href="https://azm.org/elections">World Zionist Congress</a> election.<br />
<br />
<b>The Rules (for the real election):</b> The 30 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the <a href="https://bechirot23.bechirot.gov.il/election/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">full list of candidates in Hebrew</a>, and a list of the parties in <a href="https://bechirot23.bechirot.gov.il/election/English/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">English</a>.
On election day (March 2), Israeli citizens will go to polling places
in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not for individual
candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the vote will win
seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the vote. For
example, suppose the Pirate Party wins 1% of the vote, the Bible Bloc
Party wins 33%, and Manhigut Hevratit wins 66%. Then the Pirate Party
wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25%
threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120
Knesset seats: the Bible Bloc Party gets 40 seats (so the top 40
candidates on its list are elected), and Manhigut Hevratit gets 80
seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special
elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the
Bible Bloc Party list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically possible
for all 30 parties to win seats in the Knesset, but many experts
consider this unlikely.<br />
<br />
<b>The Rules (for the Knesset March Madness pool):</b> The deadline
to enter is Sunday, March 1, 2020, at 11:59 pm Israel Time (4:59 pm
EST). When the final election results are published, each entry will
receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted
correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example
(Manhigut Hevratit 80, Bible Bloc Party 40). I predicted 60 seats for
the Bible Bloc Party, 50 for Manhigut Hevratit, and 10 for KaMaH. Then
my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats for the Bible Bloc
Party and 50 seats for Manhigut Hevratit. The entry with the highest
score wins!<br />
<br />
Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:<br />
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?<br />
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?<br />
<br />
The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on
question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you
picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this
one); closest on question 2.<br />
<br />
Maybe we’ll put up a post soon with descriptions of all the parties
and links to their websites, or maybe we won’t, because it’s mostly the
same as <a href="https://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2019/09/september-madness-2019-guide-to-parties.html">last time</a>.<br />
<br />
Good luck!!!!BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-21335405431232749812019-12-24T19:39:00.000-05:002019-12-24T19:39:15.796-05:00Yom tov survey results!<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Thanks to everyone who filled out the <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2019/11/at-decades-end.html">survey</a> about 1-day and 2-day yom tov!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We received 133 responses, but we should
emphasize that we did not employ any sort of scientific sampling methodology, and
therefore we cannot assume that the quantitative results can be extrapolated to
any particular population.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, we received
some comments expressing this concern:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l5 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>The sample bias of this survey
will likely be too large to draw any conclusions.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l5 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>There has likely been a
move towards 1-day yom tov over the past 10 years, but I don't know if that can
really be attributed to the days of the week. That shift will also likely be
over represented in this survey, as people who have made the switch will
certainly be more inclined to take the survey and may even be more likely to
see the survey.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l5 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, given that the original <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2010/10/prediction.html">prediction</a> was nothing more
than “This decade … will see lots of 2-day-yom tov people switching over to 1
day” (without a formal definition of “lots”), it is safe to say that this prediction
was confirmed. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Beyond that, the qualitative
data also provide an interesting snapshot of the diversity of thought and practice
around this issue.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The survey was distributed by posting it on this blog (where
very few people may have independently seen it without being directed from elsewhere,
since the blog is largely inactive), on the author’s Facebook timeline, and in
a number of Jewish-themed Facebook groups, and then some people further shared
it from there.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The survey defined “yom tov” (for the purposes of this
survey) as the festival days of Pesach, Shavuot, Sukkot, and Shemini Atzeret /
Simchat Torah (NOT Rosh Hashanah or Yom Kippur).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(One respondent commented “Thank you for
noting the survey excludes Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur. I am adamant about
observing Yom Kippur for only one day. Does that make me a heretic?”)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It asked respondents whether they did 1 or 2
days of yom tov (or “other”) as of 10 years ago, and whether they do 1 or 2
days of yom tov (or “other”) now, and invited them to comment on any part of
this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(The vague language of “do” was
intentional, so as to capture the many ways that people approach yom tov.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We didn’t use language like “observe”, so
that respondents wouldn’t get hung up on what counts as “observing” yom tov,
and we didn’t ask “How many days of yom tov do you think there are?” because
that doesn’t reflect the way that everyone relates to yom tov.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The survey further asked for respondents’ age,
number of children under 18 (10 years ago and now), how they describe themselves
Jewishly (10 years ago and now), country of residence (10 years ago and now),
and what they do/did (student, employed inside/outside the Jewish community,
etc.).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The ways that survey respondents describe themselves Jewishly
were all over the map!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition to all
the standard denominations and the nondenominational labels that one might
expect (“postdenominational”, “trad egal”, etc.), here were some other
highlights:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Non-believing member of a
religion: nominally secular but heir to a long tradition that is very
meaningful and which I strive to continue</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Egalish orthoish havurahish
frummie</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Predenominational</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Observant with minor
laxities</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>It’s complicated</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Somewhere on the halachic
spectrum</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Lazy Hadar alum who will
help at your new minyan</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Short answer: fuck if I
know<br />
Long answer: I find myself unsatisfied in any one jewish community and I am
trying therefore to find community in many places. I’m working towards engaging
in judaism in ways besides just what I grew up with (artistically, spiritually,
academically, physically, as a nation, as opposed to just halachically) but
halacha is still an important piece of it to me. I have grown increasingly
uncomfortable with the way (orthodox) judaism deals with gender and sexuality.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>[10 years ago] Traditional
but egalitarian conservative / [now] Traditional and egalitarian conservative</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To the extent possible, we grouped all the responses into
four categories: 1→1 (i.e. they did 1 day of yom tov 10 years ago, and do 1 day
of yom tov now), 1→2, 2→1, and 2→2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
most cases, this matched the answers to the questions, but we also coded some
of the “other” responses based on the free-response comments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, someone who wrote “I have two
seders at the beginning of Pesach, and don't eat chametz for 8 days, but I do
one day for all of the other holidays listed” was coded as 1→1; someone else
who said they converted within the last 10 years (and therefore wasn’t doing
the holidays at all 10 years ago) and has always done 2 days since converting
was coded as 2→2.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Out of the 133 responses, there were 10 that we couldn’t
place into one of the four groups.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
included some who left one or more of the relevant questions blank, and others
whose responses didn’t fit into a box, such as:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l6 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I’ve vacillated over the
years depending on how flexible my job has been to my taking off lots of time.
And depending on whether the chagim are on weekdays or not.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l6 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I did not observe yomim
tovim 10 years ago … I went from completely secular, to observing 1 day with a
Reform community, to now observing 2 days with a Conservative community</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of the remaining responses, 18 are 1→1, 5 are 1→2, 30 are 2→1,
and 70 are 2→2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or to put it another
way, out of the 123 respondents who were placed into these groups, ten years
ago 23 did 1 day and 100 did 2 days, and now 48 do 1 day and 75 do 2 days.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We’ll look at each of these groups on its
own.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>1→1 </b></div>
<b>
</b><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
18 respondents did 1 day of yom tov 10 years ago and still
do 1 day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only one of those is in Israel
(which is one indication that the sample is limited; Israelis either didn’t see
the survey or didn’t think it pertained to them), but some others said they
were originally Israeli and have maintained their 1-day practice after moving out
of Israel (more than 10 years ago).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many
of the non-Israeli respondents in this category identify as Reform, but not all
(one describes themselves as “flexibly traditional”; another identified as “sefardi
orthodox/traditional” 10 years ago and “conservative/masorti” now).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most had relatively little to say about their
non-switching, but one wrote:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Born and raised Reform, and
support 1 day for religious reasons. … I respect others practices, but believe
it is wrong to continue to observe 2 days in the diaspora, as the reasons for
it are long since gone, and I believe it is important, and mandated,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for us to continually reevaluate certain
things.</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>1→2 </b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
5 respondents did 1 day of yom tov 10 years ago and switched
to 2 days.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only one of these moved from
Israel to outside Israel (and switched for that reason).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The other 4 respondents (all outside Israel)
all have similar trajectories:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are
all under age 23, grew up Reform (and were minors 10 years ago), and are now
part of non-Reform communities that do 2 days.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2→1</b></div>
<b>
</b><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
30 respondents did 2 days of yom tov 10 years ago and switched
to 1 day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>9 of these respondents moved
to Israel in the last 10 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The other
21 are doing 1 day outside Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unlike
the 1→2 switchers, many of the 2→1 switchers do not report a substantial change
in the way they label themselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some
of their self-descriptions include Conservative, Independent/Conservative/Havurah-y,
Non orthodox member of Chabad shul, Orthodox, Reconstructionist, Shomer
Mitzvoth Conservative, Traditional, and Traditional-egalitarian.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Here are some of their comments:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I changed because (and
when) I moved to Israel. Actually, before I *moved* to Israel, I would only
keep one day if I happened to be in Israel for that yom tov. By the time I
found out that there are those who say visitors should keep two days even in
Israel, I had moved there.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>[from someone else who
moved to Israel] It’s very weird</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>My kids moved to public
school and 7 missed days in a single month was too much to justify.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Having a partner who does
only one day definitely has made a difference. :-)</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I was miserable and
stressed by all the missed work/school and I thought observing one day might
reinvigorate our practice.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Because of community, I
treat the second day as a “liturgical yom tov”, but do malakha.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>After studying Responsa on
the topic, I have decided there is no compelling reason to continue to observe
Yom Tov Sheni as there is no uncertainty over the days of chag anymore, and I
generally find the arguments for "ancestral practice" uncompelling
since our world is greatly different then theirs and to claim that we practice
Judaism in the same way as it was practiced and understood a thousand years ago
is false - this can change like other elements have changed.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I’ve never felt
particularly attached to two days of yom tov. It’s always felt rather silly to
me. But that’s what I grew up with and I didn’t have a good reason to change
it. This year I’m working and even with only taking one day off I’ve gone into
negative for PTO. I didn’t want to take off more days, and felt no need to. <br />
I will maybe go back next year because (1) there is a lot of jewish community
in my area and I would like to spend the hagim at lots of different shuls, and
(2) they fall on the weekend</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>It became unsustainable for
work to observe two days and I don’t believe it is halachicly required anyway,
so I stopped.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>School and work have made
it nearly a requirement to switch</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>We began by holding
services on only one day because we could not get a minyan the second day, but
counting the second day as yomtov nonetheless.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I found that one day was enough for me, and I don’t intend to go to
second-day services if they’re held this year.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>1. working in the secular
world, taking 2 days feels both overly burdensome and unnecessary: <br />
- the "three days on - two days off" work schedule for a month is
stressful. It turn into constant catchup.<br />
- imposes burden on my colleagues; I'd otherwise take my time off in different
configuration. (eg. week at at time)<br />
- reduces other kinds of vacation I can take from work<br />
- I enjoy yom tov more when it does not feel like a burden. 2 day yom tov feels
like a burden.<br />
- Many of my friends who do not work in the Jewish world find the second day to
be egregiously burdensome.<br />
2. I believe that the 2 days imposes unnecessary financial hardship and stress
for some, given the communal pressure to take two days off. <br />
3. I feel fortunate:<br />
* To be on the same page as my spouse in this practice.<br />
*<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To be in a family and community where
my practice is known and I'm not marginalized as a result<br />
* I currently do not need to "say yizkor" (for a parent etc). This
poses a challenge for second day.<br />
* I work in a company with lots of Jewish people who practice differently, so I
do not need to be overly concerned about my personal practice negatively
affecting others. </div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2→2</b> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The remaining 70 respondents did 2 days of yom tov 10 years
ago, and still do 2 days of yom tov.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All
are outside Israel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their comments fell
into several categories.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some expressed surprise
or disbelief that the very question was being asked:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Out here in diaspora, it's
what we do, and always have done. As such, I can't imagine anyone choosing not
to "do" the second day, unless they also aren't doing the first day. …
If I chose not to "do" the second day but still did the first, I'd be
a hypocrite.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I'm Jewish and I live in
America. How could I change? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>… I think
this is ridiculous. No one should be switching. If that was an option we'd all
switch.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>We live outside of Israel,
seems pretty obvious.</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Others explained why they haven’t changed:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo6; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Why I did not:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don't have an employment situation that
creates outside pressures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I prefer to
keep my practice consistent with the majority of observant folks in my
community, who belong to Conservative and Orthodox shuls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My Conservative synagogue observes second day
and needs people to show up to services and participate, and I am a person who
can do this.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo6; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Too important to change!</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo6; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>Once Hillel established the
calendar, the need for two day Yom Tov was "eliminated", nevertheless
the Rabbonim decided to maintain the practice. Nothing significant has changed
since that time.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo6; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I didn't because I had no
external pressure to do so.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo6; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I have changed many other
aspects of my life drastically but this feels like a very big step.</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And others talked about the possibility of switching:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l4 level1 lfo7; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>One day I will! But I have
so much inertia.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l4 level1 lfo7; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I'd definitely be open to a
switch if my synagogue switched, but that isn't likely.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l4 level1 lfo7; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>It’s very difficult to have
to sacrifice so much work vacation time on the alter of two day Yom Tovs. When
I hear rabbis talking about what can’t be done on Chol HaMoed and what
loopholes can be used to work on Yom Tov, I wonder how anyone could have a
secular job and NOT work on Yom Tov. If major Poskim had to work in the secular
workforce, I wonder if the winds would shift. Also, I think there is a shift
among Americans in Israel temporarily to observing one day of Yom Tov only.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l4 level1 lfo7; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I haven't changed, but it's
become more difficult to maintain</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l4 level1 lfo7; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"></span>I briefly kept 1-day yomtov
for 2 years when I had a job/academic schedule that did not allow me enough
days off. It felt very much like a compromise, like "this is not my ideal
but it's temporary."</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Thanks again to everyone who participated!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We’ll see what the future brings. And in fall 2020, the Tishrei holidays will be on weekends for the first time since 2009!</div>
BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-43368764794492148182019-11-04T22:03:00.000-05:002019-11-04T22:03:12.178-05:00At decade's endThe holidays are over once again, which means that the <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2008/03/end-of-era.html">unusual calendar pattern of the past decade</a> is also over. For the entire decade from 2010 to 2019, Rosh Hashanah started on only Monday and Thursday. Thus all the Tishrei holidays (except the occasional Yom Kippur) have been on weekdays, and (for 2-day yom tov people) there has been a higher-than-normal incidence of "3-day yom tovs".<br />
<br />
This pattern is now drawing to a close, and in 2020, Rosh Hashanah (and the 1st day of Sukkot and Shemini Atzeret) will be on Shabbat, for the first time since 2009, followed by Rosh Hashanah on Shabbat 3 more times during the 2020s.<br />
<br />
Back in 2010, we made a <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2010/10/prediction.html">prediction</a> that "<b>This decade ... will see lots of 2-day-yom tov people switching over to 1 day." </b>Now that the decade is over, it's time to test that prediction.<br />
<br />
<b></b>
We have a (not so rigorously administered) <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSes2EKdgSUEPTvBdxgSdrClRe6_y5a54KLEgDWK8mooNTivkg/viewform?usp=sf_link">survey</a> about whether you have switched from 1 day to 2 days, from 2 day to 1 day, or neither. Please fill out the survey and share it widely! We'll share the results in a month or two.<br />
<b></b>BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-47852975005523117732019-09-26T02:20:00.002-04:002019-09-26T02:20:46.738-04:00September Madness results!(Crossposted to <a href="https://jewschool.com/2019/09/171423/september-madness-results/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
After a little bit of last-minute shifting, the <a href="https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/">results of the Knesset election</a> are final, and that means it’s time to announce the results of <a href="https://jewschool.com/2019/08/171346/knesset-september-madness-2019/">September Madness</a>! Thanks to everyone who played!<br />
<br />
Three parties (Zehut, Noam, and Kol Yisrael Achim) dropped out before
Election Day, which means that there were only (“only”) 29 <a href="https://jewschool.com/2019/09/171372/september-madness-2019-guide-to-the-parties/">parties</a> contesting the election. Here are the election results:<br />
<ol>
<li><strong>Blue & White 33</strong></li>
<li><strong>Likud 32</strong></li>
<li><strong>Joint List 13</strong></li>
<li><strong>Shas 9</strong></li>
<li><strong>Yisrael Beiteinu 8</strong></li>
<li><strong>United Torah Judaism 7</strong></li>
<li><strong>Yaminah 7</strong></li>
<li><strong>Labor/Gesher 6</strong></li>
<li><strong>Democratic Camp 5</strong></li>
<li>Otzmah L’Yisrael</li>
<li>Tzomet</li>
<li>HaAchdut HaAmamit</li>
<li>Adom Lavan</li>
<li>Tzedek</li>
<li>HaYamin HaHiloni</li>
<li>Kavod V’Shivyon</li>
<li>Zechuyoteinu B’Koleinu</li>
<li>Pirates</li>
<li>Otzmah Kalkalit</li>
<li>Mitkademet</li>
<li>KaMaH</li>
<li>Seder Hadash</li>
<li>Democratura</li>
<li>Tzafon</li>
<li>Christian Liberal Movement</li>
<li>Green Economy, One State (Da’am)</li>
<li>Kevod HaAdam</li>
<li>Bible Bloc Party</li>
<li>Manhigut Hevratit</li>
</ol>
And now we turn to the September Madness prediction contest.
Overall, the scores were a lot higher than last time. This is probably
because this was a do-over election, and the broad strokes of the
results were essentially the same as 5 months ago. (No one did this,
but if someone had predicted that all the parties would keep exactly the
same number of seats as last time, taking into account the various
mergers since then, they would have correctly predicted 111 out of 120
Knesset seats. This would have been better than anyone did in April
Madness.)<br />
<br />
Let’s start with the bonus tiebreaker questions. The first question,
“Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come
closest?”, proved to be an easy one this time. The vast majority of
entrants picked Otzmah Yehudit, and they were correct. It wasn’t even
close (in either direction) – Otzmah got a little more than half the
votes they would have needed to cross the threshold, yet still had over 5
times as many votes as the party directly behind them (Tzomet). But
the second question, “Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”, had
responses all over the map. The “winner,” Manhigut Hevratit, won only
434 votes, and repeated its “success” from 2013 and 2015, when it placed
last under the name Moreshet Avot (and the April 2019 result, when the
party placed 36th out of 40, proved to be a fluke). Honorable mention
to <strong>Eliana Fishman</strong> in Washington DC (as well as to our runner-up, see below) for correctly picking this one.<br />
<br />
On to the overall Knesset prediction results! Looking at the scores alone, we had a four-way tie for second place, with <strong>Israel Yawns</strong>, <strong>Samantha & Gabby </strong>in Jerusalem, <strong>Ike Brooks Fishman</strong> in Washington DC, and (our April Madness 2019 champion) <strong>Aaron Weinberg</strong> in Washington DC, all scoring 113 out of 120. To resolve this, we go to the tiebreaker questions, and <strong>Aaron Weinberg</strong> nailed both of them, so he is our runner-up! Congratulations!<br />
<br />
And in first place, <strong>Liam Getreu</strong> in Sydney,
Australia, was the only one to predict 114 out of 120 Knesset seats, so
he is our September Madness 2019 champion!!! Congratulations!!!!
Continuing a trend from last time, he was also the first to complete his
entry. So this suggests that waiting longer to have the “benefit” of
polling data closer to the election may not actually be a benefit.<br />
<br />
We asked our champion for a statement, and he said:<br />
<blockquote>
Let’s just hope you don’t have to run another competition in a few months’ time!</blockquote>
So yeah. Now that the coalition negotiations are well underway, and
no one has an obvious path to a 61-seat coalition, it is certainly
possible that we’ll be right back here in a few months. Or maybe
someone will form a government, and we’ll see you again on Tuesday,
October 31, 2023, or any other time between now and then. Thanks again
to everyone for playing!BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-72178705504342152222019-09-10T00:58:00.004-04:002019-09-10T00:58:27.388-04:00September Madness 2019: Guide to the parties(Crossposted to <a href="https://jewschool.com/2019/09/171372/september-madness-2019-guide-to-the-parties/">Jewschool</a>)<br />
<br />
<a href="https://jewschool.com/2019/08/171346/knesset-september-madness-2019/">September Madness 2019</a>
is still open! You can enter this prediction contest up until 11:59 pm
Israel Summer Time (4:59 pm EDT) on Monday, September 16, 2019 (the
night before the election). Once <a href="https://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2019/04/april-madness-2019-guide-to-parties.html">again</a>,
here is a guide to the 31 parties running in this election (down from
32 when we got started – Zehut has dropped out after making a deal with
Likud). And here are the full lists of candidates in <a href="https://bechirot22.bechirot.gov.il/election/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">Hebrew</a> (official) and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_lists_for_the_September_2019_Israeli_legislative_election">English</a> (unofficial).<br />
<br />
<strong>Parties represented in the current Knesset:</strong><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://kachollavan.org.il/english/"><strong>Blue and White:</strong></a>
This list (composed of two new parties and one existing party) was
formed for the April 2019 election as an anyone-but-Bibi big tent, and
was successful in that election, winning 35 seats (same as the Likud).
They’re hoping to replicate that success by running the same list of
candidates again, with Benny Gantz (of Hosen L’Yisrael) at the top,
followed by Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) and Moshe Ya’alon (of Telem).</li>
<li><a href="https://www.dem.co.il/"><strong>Democratic Camp:</strong></a>
Meretz (now led by Nitzan Horowitz, who defeated Tamar Zandberg in the
leadership primary this summer) is hoping to build a larger faction on
the left by joining forces with the Green Movement (led by Stav Shaffir,
who recently left the Labor party) and the Israel Democratic Party (a
new party led by former prime minister Ehud Barak).</li>
<li><a href="http://www.moshtrka.com/"><strong>Joint List:</strong></a>
This union of 3 Arab parties from across the spectrum (Balad, Ta’al, and
the United Arab List) and one left-wing Arab-Jewish party (Hadash) was
created for the 2015 election, but then split into two lists for the
April 2019 election, and has now reunited. Once again, it is led by
Ayman Odeh of Hadash.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.havoda.org.il/en/"><strong>Labor / Gesher:</strong></a>
After dropping to a record-low 6 seats in the April 2019 election, the
Labor party has brought back former leader Amir Peretz, and joined with
the Gesher party (led by Orly Levy), which failed to reach the threshold
in the April election.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.likud.org.il/en/"><strong>Likud:</strong></a>
Incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying again, after tying
Blue and White for the largest number of seats in the April election,
but failing to form a governing coalition (leading to this do-over
election). This time, they have also reabsorbed Kulanu, the party that
was headed by Moshe Kahlon (now #5 on the Likud list).</li>
<li><a href="https://www.facebook.com/DeryArye"><strong>Shas:</strong></a> No drama this time – the Sephardi haredi party is running again with the same list, headed by Aryeh Deri.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.facebook.com/yahdutatora"><strong>United Torah Judaism:</strong></a>
No drama here either – this union of the two main Ashkenazi haredi
parties is also running the same list again, headed by Yaakov Litzman.</li>
<li><a href="http://insite-media.biz/yamina/01/"><strong>Yaminah:</strong></a>
The Union of Right-Wing Parties (then composed of the Jewish Home,
Tekumah, and Otzmah L’Yisrael) was elected to the Knesset in the April
election, and the New Right failed to meet the threshold. So now they
have combined (except for Otzmah L’Yisrael), with Ayelet Shaked (of the
New Right) at the top of the list.</li>
<li><a href="https://beytenu.org.il/"><strong>Yisrael Beiteinu:</strong></a>
This secular right-wing party, led by Avigdor Lieberman, had a key role
in bringing about this election, by not joining the Netanyahu
coalition. They’re running again with the same list, and may hope to be
similarly influential in the next round of coalition negotiations.</li>
</ul>
<strong>Parties not represented in the current Knesset:</strong><br />
<ul>
<li><strong>Adom Lavan: </strong>Their full tagline on the ballot calls
for legalization of cannabis and equality for Ethiopians, Arabs, and the
disadvantaged. As such, the names on the party list include a mix of
Amharic, Arabic, and Hebrew.</li>
<li><strong>Bible Bloc Party:</strong> A party made up of Christians, Jews, and Messianic Jews.</li>
<li><strong>Christian Liberal Movement:</strong> (aka Ihud B’nei HaB’rit) A mostly Arab Christian party that calls for a two-state solution.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.facebook.com/Democrturah/"><strong>Democratura:</strong></a>
A self-described socialist Zionist party that calls for a new
constitution to replace the vestiges of Ottoman law, British law, etc.</li>
<li><a href="http://en.daam.org.il/"><strong>Green Economy, One State (Da’am):</strong></a> An Arab-Jewish socialist party that calls for a “Green New Deal” and a one-state solution</li>
<li><strong>HaAchdut HaAmamit:</strong> A new Arab party founded as an
alternative to the Joint List (and like many breakaway parties, its name
means “national unity”).</li>
<li><strong>HaYamin HaHiloni:</strong> The “Secular Right”, founded by
Tiberias mayor Ron Cobi (and accused by Yisrael Beiteinu of being a
Likud plot to siphon votes away from Yisrael Beiteinu).</li>
<li><a href="https://www.kamamiflaga.com/"><strong>KaMaH:</strong></a> The name is an acronym for “Advancement of the status of the individual”, and they emphasize criminal justice reform.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.facebook.com/KaramaWaMosawa/"><strong>Kavod v’Shivyon:</strong></a> An Arab party that calls for equal rights for all citizens.</li>
<li><strong>Kevod HaAdam: </strong>They ran in April, and we still can’t
find much information about this party, whose name means “human
dignity”. A number of the names on the candidate list sound Russian.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.facebook.com/AllIsraelbrothers/"><strong>Kol Yisrael Achim:</strong></a> An Ethiopian-Israeli party calling for equality.</li>
<li><strong>Manhigut Hevratit:</strong> Last time, we wrote “This party
has the distinction of finishing in last place in the 2015 election, as
well as the 2013 election (under the name ‘Moreshet Avot’). They hope
to break the streak this time.” And indeed they did, finishing 5th to
last!</li>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.mitkademet.org/">Mitkademet:</a></strong> They are campaigning to the Russian-Israeli community as a progressive alternative to Yisrael Beiteinu.</li>
<li><a href="https://noamparty.org.il/"><strong>Noam:</strong></a> A new Religious Zionist party that has been in the news for its anti-LGBT messaging.</li>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.facebook.com/%D7%A2%D7%95%D7%A6%D7%9E%D7%94-%D7%9B%D7%9C%D7%9B%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%AA-109384987068271/">Otzmah Kalkalit:</a></strong> They claim to represent small businesses.</li>
<li><a href="https://ozmayeudit.com/"><strong>Otzmah Yehudit:</strong></a>
This Kahanist party was part of the Union of Right-Wing Parties last
time, but is on their own this time. Some of their candidates were
banned from the election, but the party itself was not.</li>
<li><a href="http://piratim.org/"><strong>Pirates:</strong></a> As part
of the international network of Pirate Parties, they may hope to be
buoyed by the timing of the election so close to International Talk Like
A Pirate Day.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.seder-hadash.org/"><strong>Seder Hadash:</strong></a> Their main issue is to change the election system, to have Knesset members elected by geographic districts.</li>
<li><strong>Tzafon: </strong>A regional party focused on issues facing the North.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.facebook.com/tzedekparty/"><strong>Tzedek:</strong></a> Founded by activist Avi Yalou, who has been in the news protesting racism against Ethiopian Israelis.</li>
<li><a href="http://tsomet.co.il/"><strong>Tzomet:</strong></a> This
previously dormant party was brought back to life in the April election,
and is now running again, emphasizing agriculture and rural interests.</li>
<li><strong>Zechuyoteinu B’Koleinu:</strong> They also ran in April, emphasizing the working conditions of law-enforcement officers.</li>
</ul>
Good luck to everyone making predictions!!!!<br />
<br />BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-64963379067883669422019-08-28T19:53:00.005-04:002019-09-04T22:08:02.455-04:00Knesset September Madness 2019!I know, it seems like we just had <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2019/03/knesset-april-madness-2019.html">April Madness</a>! But thanks to an unprecedented <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Israeli_legislative_election">second Knesset election</a> in the same year, we're back again a few months later for our sixth Knesset prediction pool.... SEPTEMBER MADNESS 2019!!!!!<br />
<br />
For those of you who participated in April Madness, this is going to seem repetitive, but, well, reality is seeming repetitive right now.<br />
<br />
<b>How to Enter:</b> Go to the <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/395X9FK">September Madness</a>
link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 32
parties will win. All predictions must be
non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up
to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to
win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats. However,
if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win
1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is
free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 to the organization of
your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win,
feel free to share which organization you chose and why.) Israeli
citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.<br />
<br />
<b>The Rules (for the real election):</b> The 32 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the <a href="https://bechirot22.bechirot.gov.il/election/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">full list of candidates in Hebrew</a>, and lists of the parties in <a href="https://bechirot22.bechirot.gov.il/election/Arabic/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">Arabic</a> and <a href="https://bechirot22.bechirot.gov.il/election/English/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">English</a>.
On election day (September 17), Israeli citizens
will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not
for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the
vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the
vote. For example, suppose the Pirate Party wins 1% of the vote, Democratura wins 33%, and Adom Lavan wins 66%. Then the Pirate Party wins
no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25%
threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120
Knesset seats: Democratura gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates
on its list are elected), and Adom Lavan gets 80
seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special
elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the Democratura list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically impossible for more than 30 parties to win seats in the Knesset (so at least 2 will be left out).<br />
<br />
<b>The Rules (for the September Madness pool):</b> The deadline
to enter is Monday, September 16, 2019, at 11:59 pm Israel Summer Time
(4:59 pm EDT). When the final election results are published, each entry
will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted
correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example
(Adom Lavan 80, Democratura 40). I predicted 60
seats for Democratura, 50 for Adom Lavan, and 10
for the Bible Bloc Party. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats
for Democratura and 50 seats for Adom Lavan. The
entry with the highest score wins!<br />
<br />
Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:<br />
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?<br />
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?<br />
<br />
The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on
question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you
picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this
one); closest on question 2.<br />
<br />
Sometime soon, we’ll put up a post with descriptions of all the parties and links to their websites.<br />
<br />
Good luck!!!!<br />
<br />
(<b>UPDATE:</b> Zehut has dropped out, so there are only 31 parties.) <br />
<span class="post-author vcard">
</span>BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-18994388439391156472019-04-21T21:53:00.002-04:002019-04-21T21:57:20.271-04:00April Madness results!Thanks to all who participated in <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2019/03/knesset-april-madness-2019.html">April Madness 2019</a>!<br />
<br />
Here are the final election results:<br />
<ol>
<li><b>Likud 35</b></li>
<li><b>Blue & White 35</b></li>
<li><b>Shas 8</b></li>
<li><b>United Torah Judaism 8</b></li>
<li><b>Hadash-Ta'al 6</b></li>
<li><b>Labor 6</b></li>
<li><b>Yisrael Beiteinu 5</b></li>
<li><b>Union of Right-Wing Parties 5</b></li>
<li><b>Meretz 4</b></li>
<li><b>Kulanu 4</b></li>
<li><b>United Arab List (Ra'am)-Balad 4</b></li>
<li>New Right</li>
<li>Zehut</li>
<li>Gesher</li>
<li>Betach - Social Security</li>
<li>Arab List</li>
<li>Social Justice</li>
<li>Magen</li>
<li>Justice for All</li>
<li>Tzomet</li>
<li>Yashar</li>
<li>Zechuyoteinu B'Koleinu</li>
<li>Older Citizens' Party</li>
<li>Kol Yisrael Achim / Pe'ulah L'Yisrael</li>
<li>Pirate Party</li>
<li>Pashut Ahavah</li>
<li>Eretz Yisrael Shelanu</li>
<li>Na Nach</li>
<li>Mehatchalah</li>
<li>Hatikvah L'Shinui</li>
<li>Kalkalah Yerukah - Medinah Achat</li>
<li>Education </li>
<li>Achrayut Lameyasdim</li>
<li>Kevod HaAdam</li>
<li>Shavim </li>
<li>Manhigut Hevratit</li>
<li>Ani v'Atah</li>
<li>Mifleget HaGush HaTanachi</li>
<li>Ichud B'nei HaB'rit</li>
<li>B'rit Olam</li>
</ol>
Even though the broad strokes of the results (the fraction of votes that went to the Likud-led coalition vs. everyone else) look very similar to other recent elections, there were still plenty of surprises at the individual party level. As a result, everyone had a harder time making predictions, and the top scores this time were noticeably lower than in past prediction pools. For example, literally no one (who entered April Madness) predicted that the New Right wouldn't make the threshold. For the tiebreaker question that asked "Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?", the overwhelming choice was Gesher, and there were a few votes for Yisrael Beiteinu, Zehut, and Kulanu, but none for the New Right.<br />
<br />
All that said, we had two entrants who tied for the winning score, correctly predicting 105 out of 120 Knesset seats: <b>Melanie M</b> in California, and <b>Aaron Weinberg</b> in Washington DC. Congratulations to both! What do they have in common? They were the first two people to complete their contest entries. Those who had access to more recent poll results did worse. The earlier polls showed Blue & White riding high, before the pendulum started swinging back to the Likud. But those early polls were correct - Blue & White did in fact win a lot of seats! It's just that Likud also won the same number. Both parties won 35 seats, which is unusually high for the modern era. The last time any one party won this many seats was in 2003, when the Likud under Ariel Sharon won 38, and the last time before that was Yitzchak Rabin's Labor party in 1992 (44 seats).<br />
<br />
So to pick a winner, we'll have to go to the tiebreaker questions. For the first tiebreaker question ("Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?"), both finalists picked Gesher, which means that we'll go to the second tiebreaker: "Which party will get the FEWEST votes?" Excluding parties that officially dropped out before the election, the "winner" was B'rit Olam (which was also in last place for number of candidates running on their list: only 1). Honorable mention to <b>Sarah Nemzer Kohl</b> in Jerusalem, who successfully predicted this. So what did our finalists pick? Melanie M predicted Education, which finished with 518 votes, and Aaron Weinberg predicted Shavim, which finished with 401 votes. This means that <b>Aaron Weinberg</b> is our 2019 April Madness champion! Congratulations!!!<br />
<br />
We asked him for a statement, and he said:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I think my only message is that this election makes the dangerous
possibility of annexation even more likely and I urge everyone to get
involved with any organization or cause that they believe can help
prevent that scary possibility from ever becoming reality.</blockquote>
<br />
Thanks again to everyone for playing! We'll see you again on Tuesday, October 31, 2023, unless by some chance early elections are called (which has been known to happen before).<br />
<ol>
</ol>
BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-53656431182072862362019-04-02T17:23:00.000-04:002019-04-02T17:23:08.277-04:00April Madness 2019: Guide to the PartiesIt's not too late to enter <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2019/03/knesset-april-madness-2019.html">April Madness 2019</a>! You have until 11:59 pm Israel Summer Time on Monday April 8, 2019 (the night before the election) to make your predictions. Once <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2015/03/march-madness-2015-guide-to-parties.html">again</a>, here is a guide to the 40 parties that are running (down from 43 when we first launched the contest! Ofek Hadash B'Chavod, Reform, and Yachad have all dropped out!). And here are the full lists of candidates <a href="https://bechirot21.bechirot.gov.il/election/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">in Hebrew</a> (official) and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_lists_for_the_2019_Israeli_legislative_election">in English</a> (unofficial).<br />
<br />
<b>Parties represented in the current Knesset:</b><br />
<ul>
<li><b><a href="https://bg19.co.il/">Blue and White</a>: </b>This is a union between the centrist party Yesh Atid (headed by Yair Lapid and serving in the current Knesset) and the two new parties Hosen L'Yisrael (founded by former IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz, who is at the head of the combined list) and Telem (founded by Moshe Ya'alon, also a former IDF chief of staff).</li>
<li><b><a href="https://gesherparty.co.il/">Gesher</a>:</b> (Re-)founder Orly Levy was elected to the current Knesset as a member of Yisrael Beiteinu, but she left that party in 2016 and has continued to serve as an independent. This new party is meant to be a revival of the Gesher party founded by Levy's father David Levy in the '90s, which served in the Knesset in alliances with both Likud and Labor.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://hadash.org.il/english/">Hadash/Ta'al</a>:</b> In the 2015 election, 4 Arab and Arab/Jewish parties ran together as the Joint List, and became the third-largest faction in the Knesset. This time, the Joint List has split into 2 and 2. This faction includes the left-wing Arab/Jewish party Hadash and the Arab Movement for Renewal (Ta'al), and is led by Ayman Odeh (who led the Joint List).<b> </b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.kulanu-party.co.il/en/">Kulanu</a>:</b> This party ran for the first time in 2015, with a focus on economic issues, and now serves in the coalition, with party leader Moshe Kahlon as Minister of Finance.</li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.havoda.org.il/en/">Labor</a>:</b> In the current Knesset, Labor is part of the Zionist Union (which includes Labor and Hatenuah). Now, that union has fallen apart, and Hatenuah leader Tzipi Livni is retiring from politics, so now Labor is on its own, and led by relative newcomer Avi Gabbay (who leads the party from outside the Knesset).</li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.likud.org.il/en/">Likud</a>:</b> Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to be elected to a record fifth term, while fending off indictments.</li>
<li><b><a href="https://meretz.org.il/en/english/">Meretz</a>:</b> The left-wing Zionist party is led for the first time by Tamar Zandberg, representing a new generation.</li>
<li><b><a href="https://newyamin.org/">New Right</a>:</b> Led by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, this faction recently broke off from the Jewish Home, seeking to be a right-wing party that can appeal to both religious and secular voters.</li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.facebook.com/DeryArye">Shas</a>:</b> The Sephardi haredi party lost ground in the 2015 election, when it splintered into two factions (Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, and Yachad, led by Eli Yishai), and Yachad failed to meet the election threshold. Yachad just dropped out (in the last week) and endorsed United Torah Judaism.</li>
<li><b>Tzomet:</b> Founder Oren Hazan currently serves in the Knesset with the Likud, but he split off to run with his own party after a poor showing in the Likud primaries. Like Gesher, the name is meant to follow in the footsteps of an old party that previously served in the Knesset with the Likud.</li>
<li><b><a href="https://hayemin.org/">Union of Right-Wing Parties</a>:</b> This is a new union between the religious Zionist party The Jewish Home (minus the faction that split off as the New Right - see above), the settler party Tekuma (which was already part of an alliance with the Jewish Home), and the Kahanist party Otzma Yehudit (whose leader Michael Ben-Ari was banned from running, but the party itself was not). The combined list is led by political newcomer and former IDF chief rabbi Rafi Peretz.</li>
<li><b>United Arab List (Ra'am) / Balad:</b> This list includes the other 2 Arab parties that had been part of the Joint List (see above, under Hadash/Ta'al). The new leader is Mansour Abbas of the Islamic Movement, who also represents a new generation.</li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.facebook.com/yahdutatora">United Torah Judaism</a>:</b> This union of the two major Ashkenazi haredi parties (Agudat Yisrael and Degel HaTorah) is led (for the sixth time) by Ya'akov Litzman.</li>
<li><b><a href="https://beytenu.org.il/#">Yisrael Beiteinu</a>:</b> Avigdor Lieberman is running once again at the head of this secular right-wing party.</li>
</ul>
<b>Parties not represented in the current Knesset:</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b><a href="https://achrayutlameyasdim.org/">Achrayut Lameyasdim</a>: </b>Founded by Haim Dayan (who served in the Knesset with Tzomet in the '90s), this party focuses on issues facing senior citizens. <br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.ani-ve-ata.com/">Ani v'Atah</a>: </b>"A social-liberal, democratic, and Zionist party"<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b>Arab List: </b>Not to be confused with any of the Arab parties that made up the Joint List, this list is led by Muhamad Kanan of the Arab National Party, which used to be part of the United Arab List.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://betah.org.il/">Betach - Social Security</a>: </b>Founded by Semion Grafman, who served a prison term in the US for money laundering, this party requested the letters פק because they spelled an English expletive.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b>B'rit Olam: </b>In the past, it ran as a Jewish/Arab party. This time, founder Ofer Lifschitz is the sole candidate on the list.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.facebook.com/rooachgabitcom/">Education</a>:</b> This party calls for an overhaul of the educational system.</li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.facebook.com/%D7%90%D7%A8%D7%A5-%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9C-%D7%A9%D7%9C%D7%A0%D7%95-%D7%9C%D7%9E%D7%A2%D7%9F-%D7%90%D7%96%D7%A8%D7%97%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%A1%D7%95%D7%92-%D7%91-353823838764272/">Eretz Yisrael Shelanu</a>: </b>Started by the father of a terror victim, this party claims to be "a party for second-class citizens".<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b>Hatikvah L'Shinui: </b>An Arab party that calls for equality for Arab Israelis.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.facebook.com/%D7%9E%D7%A4%D7%9C%D7%92%D7%AA-%D7%90%D7%99%D7%97%D7%95%D7%93-%D7%91%D7%A0%D7%99-%D7%94%D7%91%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%AA-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%87%D8%AF-United-Sons-of-Covenant-1258056037706817/">Ichud B'nei HaB'rit</a>: </b>A mostly Arab Christian party that also calls for equality for all citizens.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.justice4all.co.il/">Justice for All</a>: </b>Most notably an animal rights party.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="http://en.daam.org.il/">Kalkalah Yerukah - Medinah Achat</a>: </b>The name means "Green Economy - One State", and is a rebranding of Da'am, the Jewish/Arab socialist party.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b>Kevod HaAdam:</b> The leader is Arkadi Pogetz, and not much information is available beyond the candidates' names.</li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.facebook.com/AllIsraelbrothers/">Kol Yisrael Achim</a> / <a href="https://www.facebook.com/israelaction/">Pe'ulah L'Yisrael</a>: </b>An Ethiopian-Israeli party led by former Likud MK Alali Adamso, running together with a party focusing on Mizrachi immigrants.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://magenparty.org/">Magen</a>: </b>One more new party founded by a retired general (Gal Hirsch), describing itself as right-wing on foreign affairs and left-wing on social and economic issues.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b>Manhigut Hevratit: </b>This party has the distinction of finishing in last place in the 2015 election, as well as the 2013 election (under the name "Moreshet Avot"). They hope to break the streak this time.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.facebook.com/mehathala/">Mehatchalah</a>: </b>A new party whose platform includes overhauling the family/juvenile court system, and establishing direct elections of Knesset members.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b>Mifleget HaGush HaTanachi: </b>A new Jewish-Christian party (with a message that may be anti-Muslim), trying to appeal to immigrants from the former Soviet Union.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="http://nanach.co.il/">Na Nach</a>: </b>Breslov Hasidim who dance in the streets.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.vatikim-party.org/">Older Citizens' Party</a>: </b>As the name suggests, this is another party focusing on senior citizens' issues.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.facebook.com/pashutahava.il/">Pashut Ahavah</a>: </b>"Simply Love", a multicultural Jewish/Arab party.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="http://piratim.org/">Pirate Party</a>: </b>Part of the international network of Pirate Parties that supports Internet freedom and includes the current third-largest party in the Czech parliament.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.facebook.com/shavimmt/">Shavim</a>: </b>Their platform is about education, particularly special education.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.zedekhevrati.co.il/">Social Justice</a>: </b>Other parties have run under this name in the past (because it's easier to use an existing registered party than to start a new one), but this time there is a focus on environmental issues.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.yashar.org.il/">Yashar</a>: </b>This party supports direct democracy, and has developed an app so that party members can vote on how their Knesset representatives should vote on bills.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.zhuyotenu.org.il/">Zechuyoteinu B'Koleinu</a>: </b>Their signature issue is the working conditions of law-enforcement officers.<br /><b></b></li>
<li><b><a href="https://zehut.org.il/?lang=en">Zehut</a>: </b>This new party, founded by former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin, combines right-wing positions on some issues (annexing the West Bank) with libertarian positions on others (legalizing marijuana).<br /><b></b></li>
</ul>
BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-89603994659910809612019-03-13T21:31:00.001-04:002019-04-21T21:57:06.068-04:00Knesset April Madness 2019!I know there haven't been any posts on this blog in years, but we're bringing it out of cold storage for... APRIL MADNESS 2019!!! The Israeli election is coming up, and in the tradition of <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2006/03/march-madness-israeli-style.html">March Madness 2006</a>, <a href="https://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2009/01/february-madness-2009.html">February Madness 2009</a>, <a href="https://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2013/01/january-madness-2013.html">January Madness 2013</a>, and <a href="https://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2015/03/knesset-march-madness-2015.html">March Madness 2015</a>, we announce our fifth Knesset prediction pool!<br />
<br />
<b>How to Enter:</b> Go to the <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/RPFX6F3">April Madness</a>
link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 43
parties will win. All predictions must be
non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up
to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to
win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats. However,
if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win
1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is
free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 to the organization of
your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win,
feel free to share which organization you chose and why.) Israeli
citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.<br />
<br />
<b>The Rules (for the real election):</b> The 43 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the <a href="https://bechirot21.bechirot.gov.il/election/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">full list of candidates in Hebrew</a>, and lists of the parties in <a href="https://bechirot21.bechirot.gov.il/election/Arabic/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">Arabic</a> and <a href="https://bechirot21.bechirot.gov.il/election/English/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">English</a>
(I haven't seen an official source with the lists of candidates in English, but here's an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_lists_for_the_2019_Israeli_legislative_election">unofficial list from Wikipedia</a>). On election day (April 9), Israeli citizens
will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not
for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the
vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the
vote. For example, suppose the Pirate Party wins 1% of the vote, Na Nach wins 33%, and Justice for All wins 66%. Then the Pirate Party wins no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25%
threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120
Knesset seats: Na Nach gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates
on its list are elected), and The Justice for All gets 80
seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special
elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the Na Nach list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically impossible for more than 30 parties to win seats in the Knesset (so at least 13 will be left out).<br />
<br />
<b>The Rules (for the April Madness pool):</b> The deadline
to enter is Monday, April 8, 2019, at 11:59 pm Israel Summer Time
(4:59 pm EDT). When the final election results are published, each entry
will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted
correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example
(Justice for All 80, Na Nach 40). I predicted 60
seats for Na Nach, 50 for Justice for All, and 10
for Yashar. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats
for Na Nach and 50 seats for Justice for All. The
entry with the highest score wins!<br />
<br />
Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:<br />
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?<br />
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?<br />
<br />
The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on
question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you
picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this
one); closest on question 2.<br />
<br />
Sometime soon, we’ll put up a post with descriptions of all the parties and links to their websites.<br />
<br />
Good luck!!!!BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-46428142813522405362015-07-24T01:27:00.000-04:002015-07-24T01:27:04.332-04:00#TBT: “Taxonomy of Jewish pluralism” at 10 (Crossposted to <a href="http://jewschool.com/2015/07/37520/tbt-taxonomy-of-jewish-pluralism-at-10/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
Ten years ago this week, I posted <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2005/07/taxonomy-of-jewish-pluralism.html">“Taxonomy of Jewish pluralism”</a>
to Mah Rabu, a new blog that was just a couple months old. It was a
golden age of blogging in general, and Jewish blogging in particular.
Twitter didn’t exist yet; Thefacebook existed but was just for college
students; blogs were where it was at.<br />
<br />
This post, framed as a “work in progress”, defined three different “stages” of Jewish pluralism:<br />
<ul>
<li>Stage 1: “Frummest common denominator”</li>
<li>Stage 2: “Let’s make everyone comfortable”</li>
<li>Stage 3: Identity</li>
</ul>
<span id="more-37520"></span><br />
The taxonomy came about as a result of my experiences with multiple
Jewish communities that were all trying to be pluralistic, but in
practice meant very different things by “pluralism”. Defining these
stages was a way to articulate these different approaches to Jewish
pluralism, and also a way to highlight the ways in which some views are
marginalized and silenced by some forms of pluralistic discourse.<br />
<br />
This part has often been misunderstood, but the taxonomy classifies pluralistic <strong>discourse</strong>,
not pluralistic outcomes. It’s not about what the community ends up
doing, but about how it gets there. So, for example, a Stage-1
pluralistic community might have identical practices to a
non-pluralistic community, but the difference is that in one community,
those practices are adopted because they are perceived to be a “common
denominator” that is acceptable to everyone even though it is recognized
that everyone has differing individual practices, while in the other
community, those practices are adopted because they are seen as the norm
for the community.<br />
<br />
“Taxonomy of Jewish pluralism” seemed to arrive at a time when it was
needed, and it became more influential than I ever expected; to this
day I still hear about pluralistic Jewish organizations that are
assigning it as required reading. It also became the backbone of the
theoretical framework of the <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2010/10/hilchot-pluralism-part-viii-simchat.html">Hilchot Pluralism</a> series, which became a place to systematically document and analyze pluralistic practices in the independent Jewish world.<br />
<br />
So, 10 years later, do I still agree with it? Yes and no.<br />
<br />
I still stand by almost every word in the original post. I think the
categories themselves are still useful, and accurate enough as
descriptions of different modes of discourse. I think the shortcomings
of Stages 1 and 2, and the challenges of Stage 3, are still relevant.<br />
<br />
Where my thinking has changed is in labeling the categories as
“stages”. That’s the part of the original post that had the weakest
support – I had plenty of data (from my own experiences) about how
different pluralistic communities operate, but not so much longitudinal
data about communities that actually changed their approaches. Two
separate influences made me <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2010/04/taxonomy-of-jewish-pluralism-revisited.html">revisit</a>
the “stage” structure: 1) I’ve been involved in pluralistic
decision-making in communities that were grappling with multiple
pluralism issues, and have seen that it’s not always possible to take a
uniform approach to all issues, because of the differing nature of those
issues. 2) The original taxonomy was modeled after educational theories
such as Piaget’s stages. Since then, my understanding of educational
theory has become deeper (10 years ago I was a high school physics
teacher, and now I have a Ph.D. in physics education research), and
critiques of Piaget are also valid critiques of “Taxonomy of Jewish
pluralism”.<br />
<br />
Why aren’t “stages” the right description? Because this description
implies that a given community is in a single stage of pluralism (or
non-pluralism) at any one moment in time, and takes a single approach to
pluralistic discourse around all issues that may come up. But that’s
not how any community really works. Every community has issues around
which it does not attempt to be pluralistic. And on issues where a
community does consider itself pluralistic, it’s possible for the same
community to take a Stage-1 approach to some questions and a Stage-3
approach to others. Multiple “stages” can coexist at the same time.
(It’s also possible that some people in a community will try to argue
for a position using discourse from one stage, while others use
discourse from another. If this isn’t identified, it can lead to people
talking past one another.)<br />
<br />
For those who want to see their communities take a Stage-3 approach
to pluralism, this more fragmented picture can be seen in a half-empty
or a half-full way. The half-empty perspective is that even when you
think you’re in a Stage-3 commmunity, the other “stages” never really go
way. But the half-full perspective is that if you want to move a
community towards Stage 3, you don’t have to do it all at once; this can
happen one issue at a time (even if there are some issues where other
“stages” are more entrenched).<br />
<br />
What are the ways that you find it useful to think about Jewish pluralism in 2015?BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-38970718096526775342015-03-11T07:48:00.001-04:002015-03-11T10:47:26.082-04:00March Madness 2015: Guide to the Parties(Crossposted to <a href="http://jewschool.com/2015/03/36224/march-madness-2015-guide-to-the-parties/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
There's a week left until the Israeli election, which means there's less than a week to enter <a data-mce-href="http://jewschool.com/2015/03/36142/knesset-march-madness-2015/" href="http://jewschool.com/2015/03/36142/knesset-march-madness-2015/">March Madness 2015</a>! To aid in the process of making your picks, here is a guide to the 26 parties running in the election, as we have done <a data-mce-href="http://jewschool.com/2006/03/10290/last-chance-to-enter-israeli-march-madness/" href="http://jewschool.com/2006/03/10290/last-chance-to-enter-israeli-march-madness/">in</a> <a data-mce-href="http://jewschool.com/2009/02/15059/february-madness-cliffs-notes/" href="http://jewschool.com/2009/02/15059/february-madness-cliffs-notes/">the</a> <a data-mce-href="http://jewschool.com/2013/01/29979/january-madness-guide-to-the-parties/" href="http://jewschool.com/2013/01/29979/january-madness-guide-to-the-parties/">past</a>.
We include links to their websites if we can find them (English if
available, otherwise Hebrew if available, otherwise Arabic if
available). The <a data-mce-href="http://bechirot.gov.il/election/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx" href="http://bechirot.gov.il/election/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">full candidate lists</a>
are available in Hebrew. Again, we're using the translations of the
party names from the official election website (whether or not these are
the most accurate translations).<br />
<br />
Those who have been following
past Israeli elections might notice that, while 26 sounds like a lot,
this is actually the fewest parties we have seen in a long time. There
are two likely reasons for this: 1) The new election threshold of 3.25%
has forced smaller parties to consolidate. 2) It has only been 2 years
since the last election, so there has been less time for new parties to
form.<br />
<br />
<b>Parties represented in the current Knesset:</b><br />
<ul>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://baityehudi.org.il/" href="http://baityehudi.org.il/">Habayit Hayehudi</a>: </b>This
far-right party, with links to the (overlapping) settlement movement
and Religious Zionist movement, first ran in its current configuration
in 2013, with Naftali Bennett at the head, and he is running at the top
of the list again. Habayit Hayehudi was a key coalition partner in the
current Knesset, and will likely be again if Netanyahu forms the next
government.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://hadash.org.il/%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%A2-%D7%94%D7%A8%D7%A9%D7%99%D7%9E%D7%94-%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA%D7%A4%D7%AA/" href="http://hadash.org.il/%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%A2-%D7%94%D7%A8%D7%A9%D7%99%D7%9E%D7%94-%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA%D7%A4%D7%AA/">Joint Arab List</a>:</b>
An alliance of 3 Arab parties (United Arab List, Ta'al, and Balad), and
the left-wing Arab-Jewish party Hadash. It was forced into existence
by the new election threshold, since Hadash and Balad each got less than
3.25% of the vote in the last election, and the combined UAL-Ta'al list
got slightly more, so all the parties feared for their survival. As a
result, it is diverse, comprising factions from the Islamic Movement to
the Communist Party (no, Fox News, those aren't the same thing). At the
head is the new Hadash leader, former Haifa city councilmember Ayman
Odeh.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="https://likud.org.il/en/" href="https://likud.org.il/en/">Likud</a>:</b>
The Likud is led once again by (and strongly identified with) incumbent
PM Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, who hopes to become the first person
since Ben-Gurion to be elected to a fourth term as prime minister.
Whether he will succeed depends not only on how many seats the Likud
wins, but on whether the right-of-center (and haredi) parties
collectively add up to 61 seats.</li>
<li><b>Meretz – Israel's Left:</b>
Meretz is on the left with respect to both Israeli-Palestinian issues
and domestic issues, and is led again by Zahava Gal-On. They're hoping
to block Netanyahu from forming the next government.</li>
<li><b>Shas: </b>It's
the first election since the death of founder R. Ovadiah Yosef, and the
Sephardi haredi party has been beset by internal struggles, between Eli
Yishai (who led the party through the 2000s) and Aryeh Deri (who led
the party through the 1990s, went to prison, and returned to the Knesset
in the last election). Deri won out, and Yishai left to start his own
party (see Yachad, below). But then posthumous recordings were released
in which R. Yosef said bad things about Deri. Humiliated, Deri
resigned from the lame-duck Knesset, but he's still at the top of the
Shas list for the election, so he'll be back.</li>
<li><b>United Torah Judaism: </b>In
an election campaign filled with mergers, splits, and other excitement,
the Ashkenazi haredi party is the island of stability. They have 7
incumbent MKs, and those men (all men, of course) are filling the first 7
spots on the party list. Yaakov Litzman is at the top of the list for
the 5th time.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://www.elieyshay.com/" href="http://www.elieyshay.com/">Yachad</a>: </b>After
losing the leadership of Shas (see above), Eli Yishai started a new
party. While its platform shares some issues with Shas, Yachad is more
of a right-wing party than a standard haredi party, recruiting
candidates such as MK Yoni Chetboun (who left Habayit Hayehudi over
their support for the haredi draft bill) and Baruch Marzel (of the
far-right Otzma Leyisrael party). Its platform calls for the annexation
of the territories and for a greater role for religion in the state
(but also for protecting the environment and reducing economic
inequality).</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://www.yeshatid.org.il/?languagecode=en" href="http://www.yeshatid.org.il/?languagecode=en">Yesh Atid</a>:</b>
This party, focusing on social and economic issues, was new in the 2013
election and came out of nowhere to win 19 seats (which actually makes
them the largest party in the current lame-duck Knesset, following the
Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu split and some other shifts). Party leader Yair
Lapid served in the government as Finance Minister, but was fired by PM
Netanyahu after public disagreements, leading to the collapse of the
coalition and to this election.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://www.beytenu.org/" href="http://www.beytenu.org/">Yisrael Beiteinu</a>: </b>This
right-wing party with a Russian immigrant base, led by Foreign Minister
Avigdor Lieberman, ran on a joint list with the Likud in the last
election, but the two factions split last summer during the Gaza war
(Lieberman was concerned that Netanyahu's response was not hardline
enough). In recent months, a number of senior party members have been
implicated in a corruption scandal.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://hamahanehazioni.co.il/zionist/?lang=en" href="http://hamahanehazioni.co.il/zionist/?lang=en">Zionist Camp</a>:</b>
A center-left alliance between Labor (which leads the opposition in the
current Knesset) and Hatenuah (which was part of the coalition until
Justice Minister Tzipi Livni was fired from the government). Under the
agreement creating the joint list, if the Zionist Camp forms the next
government, Labor leader Yitzchak Herzog will serve as prime minister
for 2 years, followed by Hatenuah's Livni (if, of course, the government
lasts 4 years).</li>
</ul>
<b>Parties not represented in the current Knesset:</b><br />
<ul>
<li><b>Arab List: </b>Not
to be confused with the Joint Arab List (whose name in Hebrew and
Arabic is just the Joint List, but voters could still get confused),
this party brings together other Arab Israeli factions that didn't enter
the Joint List. It was founded by former MKs Taleb a-Sana of the Arab
Democratic Party (formerly one of the factions within the United Arab
List) and Muhammad Kanan of the Arab National Party (a breakaway from
the UAL). However, a-Sana has since endorsed the Joint List.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://www.democratora.com/" href="http://www.democratora.com/">Democratura</a>:</b> This party, founded by Doron Hakimi (author of <i>Who is Muhammad?</i> and other books), proposes a new constitution for Israel that would elect each MK from a geographic district.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://aleyarok.org.il/" href="http://aleyarok.org.il/">Green Leaf</a>:</b>
As usual, their signature issue is marijuana legalization, and their
tag line this year is "Proud of my choice". This time, their platform
also emphasizes health care. They broke 1% of the vote in the last
election, but that didn't make the election threshold.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://www.green-party.co.il/Elec2015/more/english" href="http://www.green-party.co.il/Elec2015/more/english">Green Party</a>:</b>
The Green Party focuses on environmental issues, and has had some
success at the local level, but it has never been elected to the
Knesset. This year, they originally submitted their party list under
the name "The Greens Don't Give a [possibly untranslatable]", but this
name was rejected by the Central Elections Committee.</li>
<li><b>Hope for Change: </b>An Arab party that supports full equality and integration for Arab Israelis. In the 2013 election, they came in second to last.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="https://go-kahlon.co.il/kahlon_lang/en/homepage/" href="https://go-kahlon.co.il/kahlon_lang/en/homepage/">Kulanu</a>: </b>In
almost every election, there seems to be a new party that exceeds
expectations by attracting voters who are disaffected with the
conventional left-right spectrum. It was Gil in 2006, Yesh Atid in
2013, and Kulanu hopes to be that party this year. Kulanu was founded
by former Likud MK Moshe Kahlon, who served as Communications Minister
and deregulated the cell phone market. Prominent first-time Knesset
candidates include Michael Oren (former ambassador to the US) and Rachel
Azaria (deputy mayor of Jerusalem). The platform focuses on economic
issues and transparency.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://www.orr.org.il/" href="http://www.orr.org.il/">Light</a>:</b> A secular party calling for separation of religion and state, and universal military or national service.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://perach100.co.il/en/" href="http://perach100.co.il/en/">Perach: Shefa, Bracha, Chaim Veshalom</a>: </b>The
name means "Flower: Abundance, Blessing, Life, and Peace", and it's a
haredi party based in Beit Shemesh. You can join the party as a Copper
Club, Silver Club, Golden Club, or global Diamond Club member. They're
not aiming high: they have only 5 candidates on their list.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://atid1.org.il/" href="http://atid1.org.il/">Protecting Our Children – Stopping to Feed Them Pornography</a>:</b>
A better translation, of course, would be "Stop Feeding Them
Pornography"; amusingly, this sounds like the opposite! The name sums
up the platform. <strong>UPDATE:</strong> The party has dropped out and endorsed Habayit Hayehudi.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://opr8.org/miflaga/" href="http://opr8.org/miflaga/">Rent with Honor</a>:</b>
This party calls for more direct democracy, including giving voters the
power to recall Knesset members and to propose Knesset bills.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://www.mora.022.co.il/BRPortal/br/P100.jsp" href="http://www.mora.022.co.il/BRPortal/br/P100.jsp">Social Leadership</a>: </b>It
ran last time under the name "Moreshet Avot", and finished in last
place. Party leader Ilan Meshicha Yar-Zanbar has pledged to donate most
of his Knesset salary to the needy, and has suggested that MKs should
be paid minimum wage.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://jump-high.ravpage.co.il/NAEZ" href="http://jump-high.ravpage.co.il/NAEZ">The (Temporary) National Team</a>:</b>
They oppose corruption and economic inequality, and call for returning
wealth and power to the people. I think the "temporary" part of the
party name is meant to indicate that they don't intend to be career
politicians, but it's not entirely clear to me.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://calcala.org.il/" href="http://calcala.org.il/">The Economics Party</a>:</b>
This party was founded by American-born brothers Danny and Benny
Goldstein. This time around, the brothers have had some disputes,
leaving Danny in the #1 spot on the list, and Benny all the way down at
#5. The platform focuses on economic reforms.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://piratim.org/" href="http://piratim.org/">The Pirates</a>: </b>ARRRR!
They're not actual pirates, but they're connected to the Pirate Parties
in various European countries. The party leader, Ohad Shem-Tov, lives
in New York and is not planning to return to Israel to vote. This time
they are calling themselves the "<i>petek lavan</i>" (blank ballot), suggesting that they are a protest vote.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="https://www.facebook.com/ubizhutan" href="https://www.facebook.com/ubizhutan">Ubezchutan – Haredi Women Making a Change</a>: </b>No, that's not a typo for Uzbekistan; "<i>uvizchutan</i>"
means "and by their (f.) merits". This party was founded by haredi
women to protest the exclusion of women candidates from the major haredi
parties. Not surprisingly, it has stirred controversy in the haredi
world.</li>
<li><b><a data-mce-href="http://www.nanach.co.il/" href="http://www.nanach.co.il/">We Are All Friends</a>: </b>The Na Nach party is back! Their campaign slogan this time is "<i>Im tirtzu</i>"
("If you will it"), and the platform is about the power of positive
thinking. (Since the name of the party in Hebrew is "Kulanu Haveirim",
will some voters mix them up with Kulanu?)</li>
</ul>
Good luck! One more week to enter!BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-82294603831936144162015-03-05T23:19:00.001-05:002015-03-05T23:20:15.697-05:00Knesset March Madness 2015!(Crossposted to <a href="http://jewschool.com/2015/03/36142/knesset-march-madness-2015/">Jewschool</a>.)<br />
<br />
The Israeli election is around the corner, which means that it’s time for… MARCH MADNESS 2015! From the people who brought you <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2006/03/march-madness-israeli-style.html">March Madness 2006</a>, <a href="http://jewschool.com/2009/01/15002/february-madness-2009/">February Madness 2009</a>, and <a href="http://jewschool.com/2013/01/29949/january-madness-2013/">January Madness 2013</a>, we announce our fourth Knesset prediction pool!<br />
<br />
<b>How to Enter:</b> Go to the <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/39KGGND">Knesset March Madness</a>
link and put in your predictions for how many seats each of the 26
parties will win. (We’re using the English names of the parties from the
official Knesset website, even though some of them are ridiculous
translations and transliterations.) All predictions must be
non-negative integers (0 is allowed), and your predictions must add up
to 120. (For reasons discussed below, it is impossible for a party to
win 1 or 2 seats, and unlikely that a party will win 3 seats. However,
if you choose to hedge your bets and guess that a given party will win
1, 2, or 3 seats, that is a legal entry in the contest.) Entrance is
free, but there is a suggested donation of $10 to the organization of
your choice dedicated to making Israel the best it can be. (If you win,
feel free to share which organization you chose and why.) Israeli
citizens are encouraged to vote in the actual election as well.<br />
<br />
<b>Prizes:</b> The winners will get to choose from among several prizes:<br />
<ul>
<li>A signed copy of Aryeh Bernstein’s hiphop album, A Roomful of Ottomans, which includes the anthemic Israeli politics banger, <a href="http://jewschool.com/2010/05/22803/city-of-david/22803/">“City of David”</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.benyehudapress.com/catalog/sinclair/"><i>Loving the Real Israel: An educational agenda for liberal Zionism</i></a> by Alex Sinclair</li>
<li><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Not-Israel-My-Parents-Promised/dp/0809074044"><i>Not the Israel My Parents Promised Me</i></a> by Harvey Pekar and JT Waldman</li>
<li>A signed copy of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Justice-City-Argument-Perspectives-Post-Rabbinic/dp/1936235641/"><i>Justice in the City: An Argument from the Sources of Rabbinic Judaism</i></a> by Aryeh Cohen</li>
</ul>
In addition, the winner will be invited to make a statement to the world.<br />
<br />
<b>The Rules (for the real election):</b> The 26 parties have submitted ordered lists of candidates. Here is the <a href="http://bechirot.gov.il/election/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">full list of candidates in Hebrew</a>, and lists of the parties in <a href="http://bechirot.gov.il/election/Arabic/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">Arabic</a> and <a href="http://bechirot.gov.il/election/English/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx">English</a>
(it’s possible that these links will be updated to include the
candidates’ names as well). On election day (March 17), Israeli citizens
will go to polling places in and near Israel, and vote for a party (not
for individual candidates). All parties that win at least 3.25% of the
vote will win seats in the Knesset, proportional to their share of the
vote. (This is a change for this election; the election threshold last
time was 2%.) For example, suppose The Pirates win 1% of the vote, Rent
with Honor wins 33%, and The (Temporary) National Team wins 66%. Then
The Pirates win no seats in the Knesset (since they were below the 3.25%
threshold), and the other parties will proportionally split the 120
Knesset seats: Rent with Honor gets 40 seats (so the top 40 candidates
on its list are elected), and The (Temporary) National Team gets 80
seats. If vacancies arise later in the term, there are no special
elections – the next candidate on the party’s list (e.g. #41 on the Rent
with Honor list) enters the Knesset. It is mathematically possible for
all 26 parties to win seats in the Knesset; best of luck to you if you
pick this outcome in the pool.<br />
<br />
<b>The Rules (for the March Madness pool):</b> The deadline
to enter is Monday, March 16, 2015, at 11:59 pm Israel Standard Time
(4:59 pm EST). When the final election results are published, each entry
will receive a score based on how many Knesset seats were predicted
correctly. For example, suppose the results are as in the above example
(The (Temporary) National Team 80, Rent with Honor 40). I predicted 60
seats for Rent with Honor, 50 for The (Temporary) National Team, and 10
for Perach. Then my score is 90, since I correctly predicted 40 seats
for Rent with Honor and 50 seats for The (Temporary) National Team. The
entry with the highest score wins!<br />
<br />
Ties will be broken based on two tiebreaker questions:<br />
1) Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?<br />
2) Which party will get the FEWEST votes?<br />
<br />
The tiebreakers will be resolved in this order: exact match on
question 1; exact match on question 2; closest on question 1 (if you
picked a party that DOES win seats, you’re out of consideration for this
one); closest on question 2.<br />
<br />
Sometime soon, we’ll put up a post with descriptions of all the parties and links to their websites.<br />
<br />
Good luck!!!!BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-76610016264285732022014-10-25T21:28:00.003-04:002014-10-26T22:05:50.785-04:00Mid-decade update(Crossposted to <a href="http://jewschool.com/2014/10/26/33140/mid-decade-update/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
Now that we're into Cheshvan, it's time for a mid-decade update!<br />
<br />
Four years ago, <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2010/10/prediction.html">we noted</a> that for the entire decade of the 2010s, there are only two patterns of Hebrew years: Rosh Hashanah on Monday and on Thursday. This means that most or all of the fall holidays are on weekdays for the entire decade, and 4 of the last 5 years have included a string of 3 "3-day yom tovs" for the 2-day yom tov folks.<br />
<br />
We made the following prediction: <b>This decade, and especially this half-decade, will see lots of 2-day-yom tov people switching over to 1 day.</b><br />
<br />
Now that the 2010s are half over (in regard to major Jewish holidays), it's time to assess whether this prediction has been accurate so far.<br />
<br />
I'm not claiming that this is scientific data collection methodology, but I'm calling for anecdata.<br />
<br />
<b>In the last 5 years, did you switch from 2-day yom tov to 1-day?</b> If so, post in the comments.<br />
<br />
And to be fair (and to assess, again unscientifically, whether there has been a real shift or just a dynamic equilibrium) we'll ask the opposite question too: <b>In the last 5 years, did you switch from 1-day yom tov to 2-day?</b><br />
<br />
A few guidelines:<br />
<ul>
<li>If you don't want to out yourself and post under your real name, that's fine, but then please use a pseudonym (not just "Anonymous") so that we can count unique individuals.</li>
<li>Switches to or from 0 days of yom tov don't count (that's measuring something different).</li>
<li>We're asking about what you do when you're outside of Israel.</li>
<li>We're not asking about Rosh Hashanah. </li>
<li>We realize that people aren't always completely consistent, and that practices can vary based on the situation. Answer based on which practice you primarily identify with. </li>
</ul>
<br />
Thanks for your cooperation! I'll ask the same questions in 5 years, if blogs are still around. BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-5155304738293727722014-04-05T22:17:00.002-04:002014-04-05T22:17:42.864-04:00Internal monologueLonely (and whiny) internal monologue upon the latest of many recent widely discussed articles on streams of American Judaism:<br />
"It's great that this discussion is happening, but why is no one writing about <b>my</b> form of Judaism?"<br />
"Because I don't have time to blog anymore."BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-89637810852755147192013-10-09T22:18:00.001-04:002013-10-09T22:18:19.046-04:00"Independent minyanim" in 1985A late-breaking update has been added to <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2010/03/linguistic-excursus-on-name-independent.html">this old post</a> on the history of the term "independent minyan". Scroll down to the bottom.BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-51748328143891669052013-10-03T01:18:00.001-04:002013-10-03T08:32:38.761-04:00Notes on the Pew survey(Crossposted to <a href="http://jewschool.com/2013/10/03/30914/notes-on-the-pew-survey/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
The Pew Research survey, <a href="http://www.pewforum.org/2013/10/01/jewish-american-beliefs-attitudes-culture-survey/">“A Portrait of Jewish Americans,”</a>
released yesterday, has received a lot of attention in both the Jewish
and the mainstream media. I don’t have anything more to add about the
results themselves; many pages have already been written in the last 48
hours. But after reading both the data and some of the spin, I have
several comments about what we can and can’t conclude from the data.<br />
<br />
<b>1) Orthodox Retention</b><br />
<br />
There has been <a href="http://jewschool.com/2013/10/03/30914/notes-on-the-pew-survey/kavvanah.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/pew-report-on-american-jewry-some-observations/">discussion</a>
of the retention rates among various age cohorts of Orthodox Jews, i.e.
what percentage of Jews raised as Orthodox currently identify as
Orthodox. This percentage is significantly higher among the younger age
cohorts than among the older cohorts, leading some to conclude that the
Orthodox world is more effective at retention at the present time than
in the past.<br />
<br />
This conclusion is not supported by the data. Let us consider an
alternate hypothesis: The attrition rate of Orthodox Jews has remained
constant over time. What results would we expect from this hypothesis?
The percentage of raised-Orthodox Jews who currently identify as
Orthodox should decrease with increasing age (since older people have
had more time to leave Orthodoxy), and this is in fact what we see in
the data. But we can be more precise in our predictions from this
model: The percentage should decay exponentially.<br />
<br />
To test this, I fit the numbers to an exponential curve. I made the
following assumptions and simplifications (which were quick-and-dirty,
but you can try it yourself with different assumptions): I assumed that
100% of Orthodox-raised Jews identified as Orthodox at age 18 (and all
attrition occurred after this). I collapsed each age range (e.g. 18-29)
to a single data point at the center of the age range. For the highest
age group (65+), I assumed it went up to 90.<br />
<br />
The result was that the data fit the exponential very closely (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.9932), with an attrition rate of about 2.4% per year:<br />
<a href="http://jewschool.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/orthodox-retention.png"><img alt="" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-30915" height="214" src="http://jewschool.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/orthodox-retention-300x214.png" width="300" /></a><br />
<br />
Of course we can’t conclude that there has in fact been a steady rate
of attrition either! My point is just that this would be consistent
with the data. There are many possibilities – it would also be
consistent with the data that everyone who leaves Orthodoxy leaves
during their 20s (which would mean that the attrition rate is in fact
much lower for the current 20somethings). There’s just no way to
determine from these data (which only provide a snapshot of the present
time) which model is correct, without data from past generations.<br />
<br />
<b>2) Denominational Identification</b><br />
<span id="more-30914"></span><br />
First of all, the exact question asked on the phone survey was “Thinking
about Jewish religious denominations, do you consider yourself to be [<b>RANDOMIZE:</b>
Conservative, Orthodox, Reform] something else, or no particular
denomination?” (Kudos to the survey writers for randomizing the order of
denominations! Shame on the report writers, who did not randomize or
alphabetize the order when reporting the results.) So the survey
participants were asked about denominational <b>self-identification</b>. Any discussion of the results (whether by Pew itself or by the media) that references denominational <b>affiliation</b> is not accurately reporting the results; there was no question that asked about denominational affiliation.<br />
<br />
This distinction is particularly important when it comes to the “Reform” label. <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2009/02/toward-reform-jewish-narrative-myth.html">Reform Jewish identity</a>
is complex and multifaceted, but there are many people for whom the
“Reform” label doesn’t mean affiliation with the Reform movement or
affinity to Reform Judaism as a system of religious belief and practice;
it means “I don’t do anything; I’m Reform[ed].”<br />
<br />
This phenomenon is supported by the survey data themselves: 20% of
the “Jews with no religion” category (i.e. people who first described
their religion as “none”, then answered in response to a followup
question that they consider themselves Jewish aside from religion)
identified as “Reform”. Of all the Jews who identified as “Reform”,
only 34% are synagogue members (so this category does <b>not</b> represent URJ members), and 16% said that they never attend Jewish services (including high holidays).<br />
<br />
This means that any results about the “Reform” population have to be
taken with a grain of salt, and can’t be translated into generalizations
about Reform Judaism or the Reform movement. This goes both for the
results that make Reform look bad (e.g. low rates of Hebrew literacy or
of seeing being Jewish as very important) and for the results that make
Reform look good (being the largest denomination and having the highest
“retention” rate).<br />
<br />
What we can conclude is not that Reform Jews are likely to be
Jewishly inactive in various ways, but that people who are Jewishly
inactive in various ways are much more likely to identify as “Reform”
than any of the other denominational labels.<br />
<br />
<b>3) Intermarriage</b><br />
<br />
The intermarriage rates are based on the percentage of the “net
Jewish” population, i.e. those who consider themselves Jewish. Now that
there has been substantial intermarriage for more than one generation,
there are many people who were raised by one Jewish and one non-Jewish
parent and who have gotten married themselves. Such people may identify
as Jewish or as non-Jewish, or may be on the fence. It’s probably fair
to assume that people who are on the fence are more likely to marry
non-Jews than people who identify unequivocally as Jewish.<br />
<br />
Therefore, in the same way that unscrupulous school administrators
can improve their average test scores and graduation rates by getting
rid of students who are likely to lower those stats, Jewish leaders who
want to lower the intermarriage rate may be motivated (consciously or
otherwise) to alienate intermarried families so that their children
don’t identify as Jewish (so that if those children go on to marry
non-Jews, it won’t count as an intermarriage). This may explain the
behavior of some parts of the Jewish community.<br />
<br />
Note also that the intermarriage rates by denomination are based on <b>current</b>
self-identification. If someone was raised Orthodox and then marries a
non-Jew, it is unlikely that s/he currently identifies as Orthodox.
Given that, the most surprising part of the 2% Orthodox intermarriage
rate is that it’s so high – these are Jews who are married to non-Jews
and continue to identify as Orthodox.<br />
<br />
Finally, the intermarriage statistics are only for current, intact
marriages. Therefore, the apparent rise in intermarriage over time may
be somewhat misleading. The report notes that “some research indicates
that “in-marriages” (marriages between people of the same religion) tend
to be more durable than intermarriages; if this is the case, then the
percentage of intermarriages in the 1970s and 1980s may have been higher
than it appears from looking only at intact marriages today.”<br />
<br />
<b>4) Money</b><br />
<br />
One result that raised some eyebrows was that only 76% of
Ultra-Orthodox respondents refrain from using money on Shabbat
(suggesting that 24% do use money on Shabbat). The explanation for this
may be simple: The question wording was “Do you personally refrain
from handling or spending money on the Jewish Sabbath, or not? <b>[INTERVIEWER NOTE: IF ASKED, “REFRAIN” MEANS TO NOT DO SOMETHING]</b>”
This double negative may have been confusing (especially for
respondents whose first language wasn’t English), and the clarification
was only for people who requested it. Some significant number of
Ultra-Orthodox respondents may have answered “no”, thinking they were
saying “No, I don’t handle or spend money on Shabbat.”<br />BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-83419082578040041882013-01-29T18:27:00.001-05:002013-01-30T01:09:29.734-05:00Response to H'zon(Crossposted to <a href="http://jewschool.com/2013/01/29/30148/response-to-hzon/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
I hope everyone had a great New Year of the Trees! Several days ago,
the Jewish environmental organization H’zon put up (and sent to their
email list) a <a href="http://www.hazon.org/how-do-you-spell-tu-bshvat/">blog post</a> defending their practice of incorrectly referring to the holiday as “Tu B’Shvat”. (h/t to commenter <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2012/02/hazon-sinks-deeper-into-hall-of-shame.html?showComment=1328583885820#c7891933382554079798">Joel</a> for “H’zon”.)<br />
<br />
A review of why this is incorrect: In Hebrew, a word may not begin
with two shevas. (A sheva is the vowel that looks like a colon
underneath the letter; depending on context, it is pronounced either not
at all or like the English schwa.) Therefore, if one of the prefixes <i>b-</i>, <i>k-</i>, or <i>l-</i>
is placed on a word beginning with a sheva, the prefix letter gets a
chirik (the “ee” vowel, represented by a single dot under the letter)
instead of a sheva. For example, the name of the month of Sh’vat
(uniquely among all the Hebrew months) begins with a sheva, so when the
prefix B- is attached to the month, you get Bishvat (or BiShvat or
biShvat or Bi-Shvat or BeeShvat — however you want to write it).<br />
<br />
To be clear, this is a Hebrew grammar issue; it is NOT a
transliteration issue. The issue has nothing to do with the choice of
which English characters are used to represent each Hebrew letter and
vowel — the same issue would come up in vocalized Hebrew, in which
בִּשְׁבָט is correct and בְּשְׁבָט is incorrect. (In unvocalized Hebrew,
of course, the difference is invisible.) As a parallel, suppose your
organization sent out an email (in English) around the new year (the
tree one or any other one) saying “Shanah tov!” If someone then
responded “Actually, it should be ‘shanah tovah’, since ‘shanah’ is a
feminine noun, so it should take a feminine adjective”, you wouldn’t
reply “Hey, you’re entitled to your preference, but there’s no right or
wrong way to transliterate Hebrew into English characters.” It should
be obvious that such a reply would be a non sequitur, since
noun-adjective agreement is obviously unrelated to transliteration –
nothing would be different if the email had been in Hebrew and said שנה
טוב, and then was corrected to שנה טובה.<br />
<br />
In short, anyone who says this is a transliteration dispute either
doesn’t understand the issue (and should defer to those who do) or is
intentionally obfuscating.<br />
<br />
With that in mind, here’s the story so far:<br />
<br />
Around this time last year, I wrote a blog post, <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2012/01/war-on-tu-bishvat.html">“The War on Tu Bishvat”</a>,
enumerating and responding to the top five rationalizations for
“B’Shvat”/”B’Shevat”, and explaining why they are without merit,
followed by a second blog post, <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2012/01/tu-bishvat-halls-of-fame-and-shame.html">“Tu Bishvat Halls of Fame and Shame”</a>,
which laid out who was on each side of the issue. I then had some
unfortunate online interactions with H’zon, during which one of their
staffers acted unprofessionally, and I wrote it up in a third blog post,
<a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2012/02/hazon-sinks-deeper-into-hall-of-shame.html">“Hazon sinks deeper into the hall of shame”</a>.<br />
<br />
If you haven’t read those three blog posts (or even if you have), read them now before proceeding further.<br />
<span id="more-30148"></span><br />
H’zon didn’t read them before responding, and as a result, most of the points they make in their <a href="http://www.hazon.org/how-do-you-spell-tu-bshvat/">defense</a> were already anticipated, and already responded to, a year ago in <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2012/01/war-on-tu-bishvat.html">“The War on Tu Bishvat”</a>. In fact, I think they managed to hit all five. So I’m not going to rehash all of those points again (only some of them).<br />
<br />
They referred to me only as a “Jewish blogger”, and didn’t call me
out by name (which I appreciate, since this isn’t about me), and
likewise I’m not calling out the author of the H’zon post by name (even
though the post was signed), because I otherwise respect this
individual, and want to make it clear that this isn’t personal.<br />
<br />
To be fair, I understand that H’zon may be under a lot of stress
right now: they recently merged with the Is’bella Fr’dman J’wish R’tr’t
C’nt’r, and it appears to already be a rocky marriage, since H'zon has
just doubled down on “Tu B’Shvat”, while IF remains committed to “Tu
B’Shevat” (which is even more wrong: while “Tu B’Shvat” may be
marginally defensible as a transcription of how some people pronounce
the name of the holiday, “Tu B’Shevat” doesn’t even have that going for
it). Still, we’ll leave H’zon and Is’bella Fr’dman to work out their
own differences; this post is targeted more at those who might be
inclined to follow H’zon’s lead and change their style from the correct
to the incorrect name of the holiday.<br />
<br />
The first half of H’zon’s response is a long and irrelevant
digression about academic transliteration, stating that “a certain kind
of foolish consistency of academic transliteration can become the
hobgoblin of little minds.” The opening paragraphs of this post (and
item #1 in “The War on Tu Bishvat”) should make clear why this line of
argument is a red herring. Those who are defending Tu Bishvat aren’t
insisting on consistency in transliteration, or on any particular
transliteration scheme, but only on the rules of Hebrew grammar.
H’zon’s attack on the academic transliteration straw man suggests that
either they don’t understand the grammatical issue (which is unlikely,
because the later part of the post indicates that they do) or they are
writing to appeal to those who don’t understand the issue.<br />
<br />
H’zon then goes on to outline its reasons for spelling it “Tu B’Shvat”:<br />
<blockquote>
1. Finding a way in English to give a sense of the
grammar/structure of the Hebrew. My problem with the “correct”
transliteration in this instance is that “Bishvat” doesn’t in any way
convey to a non-hebrew speaker that בשבט – b’shvat – is a prefix
followed by the Hebrew month of Shvat. Tu B’Shvat is, to my mind, a much
clearer conveying of what’s going on in the Hebrew than Tu Bishvat.</blockquote>
The idea that one must violate Hebrew grammar in order to convey the
sense of Hebrew grammar is certainly a strange one, and one that we
would never think of implementing in English. (“Yes, I realize that in a
technical sense, ‘went’ would be more academically ‘correct’, but
‘goed’ helps convey that it’s the past tense of ‘go.’”)<br />
<br />
And this violation is also entirely unnecessary. As mentioned in
item #4 of “The War on Tu Bishvat”, there are plenty of grammatically
correct ways to indicate that בשבט is a prefix followed by a month:
BiShvat, biShvat, Bi-Shvat, bi-Shvat, Bi’Shvat (if you just can’t quit
that apostrophe), Bee-Shvat, and many more. (All of these options,
including the incorrect B’Shvat, go above and beyond what would be
provided by Hebrew itself, which makes no indication that the <i>bet</i>
is a prefix. But as long as English allows for capital and lowercase
letters, and punctuation within a word, I agree with H’zon that there’s
no reason not to take advantage of these features.)<br />
<blockquote>
In addition, properly speaking the first vowel in the
word is a long e sound (bee-), although most Hebrew speakers slur that a
bit in modern pronunciation. While the proper academic way to represent
this vowel is the letter i, in spoken English bi- is never pronounced
as bee (think about the words bit and bite). Furthermore, most words in
English with bi- as a prefix pronounce it as a long vowel, such as in
bilateral, which is not at all what is intended. Therefore, Tu B’Shvat
represents a transliteration that a/ is easy to read, b/ visually sets
apart the prefix, and c/ allows those not familiar with Hebrew grammar
to approximate the typical Hebrew pronunciation.</blockquote>
H’zon can’t seriously think that English speakers outside of academia
would have difficulty pronouncing “Bishvat”. Plenty of English words
have the letter i pronounced as “ee”. Most of these are loan words from
other languages rather than coming from Anglo-Saxon roots, but they
have become common English words all the same. No English speakers have
trouble pronouncing machine, radio, pizza, or bikini. (Ok, most of
those words don’t have the string “bi”, but is there any reason to think
the consonant b should make a difference?)<br />
<br />
Furthermore, English-speaking Jews who are accustomed to seeing
Hebrew transliteration (even if they don’t speak Hebrew) know that it’s a
standard convention to read the vowels as in Spanish (or other
languages with similar vowel sets), rather than as in English words of
older vintage. H’zon knows this – on their own website they feature
programs called <a href="http://siachconversation.org/">Siach</a> and the <a href="http://www.hazon.org/resource/shmita-project/">Shmita Project</a>.
They don’t feel the need to spell these as “S’ach” or “Shm’ta”, nor do
they appear to be concerned that English speakers might pronounce the i
vowels as “eye”. (And I’ve never heard anyone pronounce the commonly
used nickname of the Israeli prime minister as “bye-bye”.)<br />
<br />
Finally, if an English speaker doesn’t pronounce the i in Bishvat as
“ee”, the next likeliest pronunciation would be the first syllable
rhyming with “fish”, which would still be closer to (or at least no
farther from) the Hebrew pronunciation than any reading of “B’Shvat”
would be.<br />
<br />
For all these reasons, H’zon’s claim that “B’Shvat” would lead
readers to the correct pronunciation, while “Bishvat” is an ivory-tower
affectation (like “qydwš”) that would baffle non-academic English
speakers, is simply not plausible.<br />
<blockquote>
2. Common usage. On Google, tu b’shvat and tu b’shevat
have between them 619,000 hits, whereas tu bishvat and tu bishevat have
431,600. (This may change over time: if ten years from now the
grammar-police succeed in imposing bishvat or bishevat, then there would
be some argument for us to cross-over; even then, I’d prefer not to
lose a sense of prefix and month, as well as reflecting how a non-native
Hebrew speaker pronounces English vowels.) Tu bee-shvat in comparison
has fewer than 50 hits.<br />
3. It’s how it was spelled when I was a kid. This last is of course
the least defensible academically, and the most persuasive personally.
I’ve been celebrating Tu B’Shvat since I was a kid, and I’ve been to or
hosted Tu B’Shvat seders every year since 1986; and along the way, I’ve
always spelled it – and mostly seen it spelled – Tu b’Shvat.</blockquote>
The idea that practices based on ignorance are justified because most
people are ignorant, or because people have been ignorant for a long
time, is a troubling epistemological stance for an environmental
organization to encourage. Presumably H’zon generally wants its
constituents to rethink widespread and longstanding problematic
practices on their merits, rather than to leave those practices in place
based on their popularity and longevity. But with this irresponsible
blog post, H’zon has given its epistemological stamp of approval to
anyone who might say “Most Americans drive everywhere and eat
factory-farmed meat, and that’s what I’ve been doing since I was a kid.
And ‘meat’ gets a whole lot more Google hits than ‘tofu’. So why
should I even think about switching to anything different, when that
would put me in the minority? If ten years from now the treehugger
police succeed in imposing a carbon tax, then there would be some
argument for me to think about biking or public transportation, but even
then I’m not sure I’d do it.” The thread of anti-intellectualism that
runs through H’zon’s response, from the “academic transliteration” straw
man to the “grammar-police”, is also playing with fire: this attitude
aids and abets those who say “Sure, a bunch of egghead professors may
tell us that the climate is changing, but why should I believe them
instead of Fox News?”<br />
<br />
H’zon then has the audacity to quote President Obama on climate
change: “The path will be long and sometimes difficult. But America
cannot resist this transition. We must lead it.” Leadership, whether on
climate change or on Hebrew grammar, means having the fortitude to do
what is right (which includes admitting past mistakes) and to bring
others along by example, rather than following the crowd. On this
count, H’zon has failed. Rather than wait passively for others to
correct themselves on this issue, H’zon has the power (and therefore the
responsibility), as a pillar of the Jewish environmental movement, to
lead that change. They have chosen to waste this power.<br />
<br />
Perhaps H’zon will never evolve on this matter. If so, this post
isn’t directed to H’zon, but to all of the environmentally-minded
organizations and individuals who respect H’zon (even though this
respect is unwarranted on this issue) and follow its lead. Think about
the qualities that you want to embody in order to face this generation’s
greatest challenges. If H’zon won’t provide leadership on this issue,
you have the power to begin on your own.BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-71107043700575319872013-01-24T20:33:00.000-05:002013-01-24T20:33:26.583-05:00January Madness results!(Crossposted to <a href="http://jewschool.com/2013/01/24/30137/61january-madness-results/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
The final Knesset election results are in! (<a href="http://jewschool.com/2013/01/10/29979/january-madness-guide-to-the-parties/">This guide</a> may help if you can’t remember which party is which.)<br />
<ol>
<li>Likud Beiteinu 31</li>
<li>Yesh Atid 19</li>
<li>Labor 15</li>
<li>Habayit Hayehudi (The Jewish Home) 12</li>
<li>Shas 11</li>
<li>United Torah Judaism 7</li>
<li>Hatenua 6</li>
<li>Meretz 6</li>
<li>United Arab List – Ta’al 4</li>
<li>Hadash 4</li>
<li>Balad 3</li>
<li>Kadima 2</li>
<li>Otzma Leyisrael</li>
<li>Am Shalem</li>
<li>Aleh Yarok (Green Leaf)</li>
<li>Koach Lehashpia</li>
<li>Eretz Hadasha</li>
<li>Hayisraelim</li>
<li>Greens</li>
<li>Dor Bonei Haaretz</li>
<li>Chaim Bechavod</li>
<li>Da’am – Workers Party</li>
<li>Tzedek Hevrati</li>
<li>Achim Anachnu (We Are Brothers)</li>
<li>Pirates</li>
<li>Kulanu Haverim Na Nach</li>
<li>Economics Party</li>
<li>Mitkademet Liberalit Democratit (Leeder)</li>
<li>Or (Light)</li>
<li>Brit Olam</li>
<li>Hatikva Leshinui</li>
<li>Moreshet Avot</li>
</ol>
(“But wait!” you say. “This is only 32 parties! I thought there were
34!” That’s right. The breakaway haredi party Netzach dropped out
last week, having resolved its differences with United Torah Judaism.
Atid Echad (One Future) also dropped out two days before the election –
apparently pornography wasn’t at the top of anyone’s list of issues in
this election.)<br />
<br />
So first of all, congratulations to everyone who participated in
January Madness 2013! Given how unpredictable Israeli elections can be,
it takes a lot of courage to make a prediction and put it out there in
public. No one correctly predicted all 120 Knesset seats, but everyone
got some of them right.<br />
<br />
But even more so, congratulations to the winners!!! Both <strong><a href="https://twitter.com/lpolinsky">Lev Polinsky</a></strong> in New York NY and <strong><a href="http://www.typeint.com/">Eyal</a></strong>
in Israel correctly predicted 112 of the 120 Knesset seats. (While no
one predicted that Yesh Atid would win 19 seats, Lev Polinsky came the
closest, with 15.)<br />
<br />
So we had to go to tiebreakers. On the first tiebreaker (which party
that doesn’t make it into the Knesset will come closest?), Lev Polinsky
guessed Am Shalem and Eyal guessed the Greens. Since neither picked
the right-wing Otzma Leyisrael (instead, both of them incorrectly
predicted that Otzma Leyisrael would win Knesset seats), we go to the
second tiebreaker (which party will come in last place?). Again, no
exact matches: Lev Polinsky picked Kulanu Haverim, and Eyal picked
Eretz Hadasha. So now we go back to the first tiebreaker. Since Am
Shalem (2nd place among the parties that didn’t make it in) did better
than the Greens (7th place), <strong>Eyal</strong> wins second place, and <strong>Lev Polinsky</strong> is the 2013 January Madness champion!<br />
<br />
Here is a message from our champion (who also wins a copy of the <a href="http://benyehudapress.com/catalog/ComicTorah/">Comic Torah</a>):<br />
<blockquote>
I am thrilled to have won, and I will print and display my winner’s
certificate proudly alongside my HRH Assassin winner’s certificate –
also won under BZ’s supervision. I hope he gets a job as the head of the
Multi-State Lottery Association soon.</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote>
I enjoyed having an excuse to learn about all the marginal Israeli
parties, like Kadima. I look forward to repeating this exercise in a few
months.</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote>
Finally, I have been negligent in making my suggested contribution,
so if people want to make suggestions for places to contribute in the
comments, I am all ears.</blockquote>
And a message from our runner-up, who also wins a copy of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Ghettoblaster-Socalled/dp/B000Q66HH8"><em>Ghettoblaster</em></a>:<br />
<blockquote>
I was really surprised to win. All i did was look at
Wikipedia’s list of predictions, and basically used that. I changed it a
bit, adding a bit to the right, which might explain why i missed 8. But
i still never expected to get 93⅓%!</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote>
They had a warning that it might not add up to 120 seats, so to
check, i wrote a short program to prepare it for addition – replace
whitespace with +; then i pasted into Google. I’m actually a pretty good
programmer; i created <a href="http://typeint.com/">typeint.com</a> and the associated projects from scratch; and i also host a forum for programmers at <a href="http://coders-shed.com/">coders-shed.com</a>.
Speaking of TypeINT, i’m sure that some readers have needed to type in
Hebrew, but were unsure how to. TypeR, by TypeINT is the perfect
solution.</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote>
I hope that the 19th Kenneset proves some early predictions wrong and doesn’t end a disaster.</blockquote>
Finally, honorable mention goes to everyone who got the tiebreaker
questions right. On the first tiebreaker question, congratulations to <strong>James Bier</strong> in Tucson AZ, <strong>David</strong> in Philadelphia, <a href="http://thejewishquestion.wordpress.com/"><strong>David Meyer</strong></a> in College Park MD, <strong><a href="http://learni.st/users/580/boards/10546-israeli-general-election-campaign">Mike Schultz</a></strong> in Karmiel, <strong><a href="http://biblecriticism.com/">Tzemah</a></strong>, and <strong>Eliana</strong>
in DC, all of whom picked Otzma Leyisrael as the top party not to make
it over the threshold. On the second question, congratulations to <strong>David W. Eisen</strong> in Bet Shemesh and <strong><a href="http://www.halakhah.org/">Ethan Tucker</a></strong>
in Bronx NY, who predicted that Moreshet Avot would come in last. (I
never could figure out what Moreshet Avot’s story was, and apparently
neither could anyone else, except for 461 voters.) And since we didn’t
get the news about the two parties dropping out in time to remove them
from the contest entrance form, we’ll also give honorable mention to <strong>James Bier</strong> in Tucson AZ (again) and <strong>Itamar Landau</strong>
in Jerusalem, both of whom picked One Future to come in last place
(since one could argue that 0 is less than 461). (The most popular
choice for this question was the Pirate Party. They weren’t even in the
bottom seven! The lesson is never underestimate pirates.)<br />
<br />
Thanks for playing, everyone! The next Knesset election will be
Tuesday, November 7, 2017 (yes, that’s also Election Day in US
jurisdictions that hold elections in odd-numbered years), unless
elections are called earlier than that (which they almost certainly
will).BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-41291923125957129232013-01-17T00:13:00.002-05:002013-01-17T00:13:29.900-05:00Thanksgivukkah FAQ(Crossposted to <a href="http://jewschool.com/2013/01/17/30051/thanksgivukkah-faq/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
As many of you know by now, November 28, 2013, will be both
(American) Thanksgiving and the 1st day of Chanukah! The possibilities
are endless: deep-fried turkey; latkes with cranberry sauce and gravy;
pumpkin sufganiot; I’m sure you have more in mind. This week an <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/mizrahijonathan/home/ThanksgivingAndHanukkah">article by Jonathan Mizrahi</a>
on this calendar issue has been making the rounds. It has some
excellent graphs illustrating both the rarity of Thanksgivukkah in our
present era and the long-term drift of the calendar that will make
Thanksgivukkah impossible in the future, but it somewhat overstates its
primary claim that Chanukah and Thanksgiving are “a once in eternity
overlap”. This FAQ answers some questions that this article has
inspired in various other forums, and corrects a few nuances.<br />
<br />
Many thanks to Stephen P. Morse for creating an <a href="http://stevemorse.org/jcal/whendid.html">excellent tool</a>
to answer calendar questions quickly (though if he’s reading this, I’d
love to see the capability of going beyond 9999 CE, and of
distinguishing between Adar and Adar I), and to Remy Landau for
providing the <a href="http://hebrewcalendar.tripod.com/drift.html">raw data on the Rosh Hashanah drift</a> (though if he’s reading this, what’s with the popup ads?).<br />
<br />
If you have questions that aren’t answered here, we’ll try to answer
them in the comments (and if there are a lot, we’ll put together a
sequel).<br />
<br />
<strong>1. What is causing the long-term drift in the calendar?</strong><br />
<br />
You’ll notice from Mizrahi’s graph that the Jewish holidays shift
significantly from one year to the next (like seasonal variations in the
weather), but also (on average) slowly drift later over long time
periods (like climate change). The year-to-year shifts are because the
Hebrew calendar is primarily a lunar calendar, and 12 lunar months are
approximately 354 days – much shorter than the solar year of ~365.25
days. Without any correction, the Jewish holidays would continue to
move ~11 days earlier every year. (This is what happens with the
Islamic calendar, in which every year is 12 lunar months without
exception, so over several decades the Muslim holidays traverse the
entire solar year.) In order to keep the Jewish holidays roughly
aligned with the solar year (so that Pesach is always in spring, etc.),
an month is added every few years, so Jewish “leap years” have 13 lunar
months instead. As the Greek astronomer Meton discovered, 235 lunar
months (=19*12 + 7) are approximately equal to 19 solar years, so if we
put the calendar on a 19-year cycle, and add an extra month to 7 out of
every 19 years, it mostly works out.<br />
<br />
BUT NOT EXACTLY. 235 lunar months add up to 6939 days 16 hours 595
parts. (In Jewish calendar math, “parts” are the basic subdivisions of
an hour, instead of minutes and seconds. There are 1080 parts in an
hour, so 595 parts is about 33 minutes.) In the Gregorian calendar, 19
solar years (on average) are 6939 days 14 hours 626 parts. That’s about
a 2-hour difference. So the Jewish holidays (on average) shift about 2
hours later during each 19-year cycle, which adds up to a full day
every 231 years.<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>2. Is this an issue of Julian vs. Gregorian calendars?</strong><br />
<br />
Not really. 19 Julian years (on average) are 6939 days 18 hours. So
if the Gregorian calendar is closest to the actual solar year, the
Jewish calendar is doing better than the Julian calendar at
approximating it (but still not well enough). (Think of it this way:
By definition, the Julian calendar deviates from the Gregorian calendar
by 3 days every 400 years. The Jewish calendar deviates by slightly
less than 2 days in the same time period.)<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>3. But there’s some mechanism in place to correct this drift before it gets out of hand, right?</strong><br />
<br />
Nope. If no action is taken, the Jewish calendar will continue to
drift later and later, until Pesach is in summer, Rosh Hashanah is in
winter, etc. And it’s not clear how any action could be taken, since
there’s no Jewish pope or Sanhedrin or any sort of body empowered to act
on behalf of the whole Jewish people. But on the bright side, (as
Mizrahi mentions) if we wait tens of thousands of years, we’ll loop all
the way around to where we started.<br />
<br />
The Catholics do have a pope, and so even though Easter is on a
similar 19-year cycle, they’ve instituted corrections to keep it from
drifting. Easter and Pesach usually coincide, but in the years when
they’re a month apart instead, let’s just say it’s not Easter’s fault.<br />
<span id="more-30051"></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>4. If we did take action to fix the calendar drift, what would that look like?</strong><br />
<br />
Generally speaking, over the long term, we’d need a way to have
(very) slightly fewer leap years. I’ll get into specific proposals in a
future post.<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>5. If November 28 is the earliest possible Chanukah, does that mean all the other holidays in 2013 are the earliest they can be?</strong><br />
<br />
Yes! We’re also getting the earliest Purim (February 24), Pesach
(March 26), Shavuot (May 15), Rosh Hashanah (September 5), and the other
fall holidays.<br />
<br />
However, because of the aforementioned calendar drift, this is true
only locally, for the present couple of centuries. The earliest Rosh
Hashanah used to be September 4 (which means Purim on February 23, and
so on for the rest of the holidays), but that happened for the last time
in 1766. The last September 5 Rosh Hashanah (until we loop all the way
around, of course) will be in 2089; after that, the earliest will be
September 6.<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>6. Chanukah is never early or late – it always starts on the 25th of Kislev! Ha ha!</strong><br />
<br />
Yuk yuk yuk. You’re very clever, and showing your allegiance to
Jewish time rather than to the surrounding culture. But the solar year
is an actual physical thing, not an arbitrary convention of the secular
calendar (even if the months of January, February, etc., are arbitrary) –
it corresponds to the earth’s orbit around the sun, and therefore to
many readily observable features of the seasons. The architects of the
Jewish calendar understood this, and that was why they instituted leap
years, to make sure the season-dependent Jewish holidays ended up in
their proper seasons. The concept of “the holidays are early this year”
would have been very familiar to the rabbis of the Talmud (even if
their response of “Do you think we should add an extra Adar?” would be
unfamiliar to us).<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>7. Is it true that Thanksgiving has never fallen during Chanukah before?</strong><br />
<br />
It’s true that, since Thanksgiving became a national holiday in 1863,
no day of Chanukah has fallen on the 4th Thursday in November. But
Thanksgiving wasn’t always on the 4th Thursday in November: originally,
it was on the <strong>last</strong> Thursday in November (which could be
either the 4th or 5th Thursday, depending on how many Thursdays were in
November). The change happened under President Franklin D. Roosevelt,
starting in 1939. (The motivation was to start the Christmas shopping
season a week earlier, to help stimulate the economy. Can you imagine a
time when the Christmas shopping season never started before
Thanksgiving?) The original range for Thanksgiving was November 24-30;
the current range is November 22-28.<br />
<br />
And sure enough, there were two Thanksgivukkahs in the late 19th
century, both on the 5th Thursday in November. Thursday, November 29,
1888, was the 1st day of Chanukah, and Thursday, November 30, 1899 was
the <strong>4th</strong> day of Chanukah.<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>8. If November 30 was the 4th day, that means Chanukah started on November 27! How is that possible?</strong><br />
<br />
Good question! After all, September 5 is the earliest possible Rosh
Hashanah (and indeed, September 5, 1899, was Rosh Hashanah), and has
been since 1766. And as we know from 2013, September 5 Rosh Hashanah
corresponds to November 28! What’s the deal?<br />
<br />
The answer is that, while all the holidays between Adar and Cheshvan
have a fixed relationship (since all the months in between have a fixed
number of days), <a href="http://mahrabu.blogspot.com/2011/12/winter-is-coming.html">Chanukah is different</a>,
since Cheshvan can have either 29 or 30 days. In “applesauce years”,
Cheshvan has 30 days, and Chanukah begins on the same day of the week as
Rosh Hashanah (as it will in 2013). In “sour cream years”, Cheshvan
has 29 days, and Chanukah begins one day earlier, on the same day of the
week as Shavuot. 1899 was a sour cream year, so Chanukah began one day
earlier, on November 27.<br />
<br />
However, Shavuot can never fall on Thursday, so Chanukah can never fall on a November 27 <strong>Thanksgiving</strong>.<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>9. Have there been any other November 27 Chanukahs since then?</strong><br />
<br />
No. 1899 was the last one, and will be the last one (until we loop around again).<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>10. Is it true that Thanksgiving will never again overlap with Chanukah?</strong><br />
<br />
Never say never. As Mizrahi points out, it will happen again in 70,000 years or so, when the calendar loops all the way around.<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>11. Ok, but seriously, what about during our (or our grandchildren’s) lifetimes?</strong><br />
<br />
After 2013, if we ignore what happens 70,000+ years in the future
(and assume the rule for the date of Thanksgiving stays the same),
Thanksgiving will never again fall completely during Chanukah.<br />
However, Chanukah begins at sundown, and my family does Thanksgiving
dinner in the evening (though I know not everyone does). And though the
1st <strong>day</strong> (or any other day) of Chanukah won’t fall on
Thanksgiving again in the near-to-medium future, we’ll have a couple
more instances when the first <strong>night</strong> of Chanukah is on
Thanksgiving night: November 27, 2070, and November 28, 2165. (The
first of those will be just before my 91st birthday, and I hope to be
celebrating with my grandchildren (and maybe great-grandchildren), just
as my son and I got to celebrate Thanksgiving this year with my
nonagenarian grandfather.) After 2165, that’s it.<br />
<br />
The partial Thanksgiving-Chanukah overlap happened once before, on
November 28, 1918. Perhaps some of our older readers remember this?<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>12. Wait, I wasn’t alive in 1918, and I think I remember Chanukah starting on Thanksgiving night.</strong><br />
<br />
No, you don’t. You’re thinking of 2002, when Chanukah started on Friday night, November 29 (the night <strong>after</strong> Thanksgiving).<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>13. Have we had other November 28 Chanukahs in recent memory?</strong><br />
<br />
Yes, most recently in 1994. But that year, Chanukah began on Sunday
night (Thanksgiving was November 24). After 2013, we’ll have it again
in 2032, when Chanukah begins on Saturday night (following Thanksgiving
on November 25).<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>14. Is it fair to say that Thanksgiving repeats on a 7-year cycle?</strong><br />
<br />
It’s not strictly true, since the 4-year Gregorian leap year cycle
interferes with this. But Mizrahi’s point is about long-term averages,
so his statement that “[y]ou would therefore expect them to coincide
roughly every 19×7 = 133 years” is valid to within reasonable precision.
The point is that the probability of Thanksgiving falling on any of
the 7 allowed days is roughly equal, and is uncorrelated with the
19-year cycle (since 7 and 19 are both prime numbers).<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>15. While we’re on the subject of early Jewish holidays coinciding with American holidays, can Rosh Hashanah fall on Labor Day?</strong><br />
<br />
Yes! Labor Day is the first Monday in September, so it can fall
anywhere from September 1 to 7, and part of that range is in the allowed
range for Rosh Hashanah. It won’t happen this year, when Labor Day is
September 2 and Rosh Hashanah is September 5. The last time was
September 7, 1964, and the next time will be September 6, 2032.<br />
<br />
As for Rosh Hashanah starting on Labor Day evening (so that 2-day
Rosh Hashanah observers get a 5-day weekend), the last time was
September 5, 1994, and the next time will be September 6, 2021.BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12610610.post-83190954856041890522013-01-09T23:06:00.002-05:002013-01-09T23:06:17.212-05:00January Madness: Guide to the Parties(Crossposted to <a href="http://jewschool.com/2013/01/10/29979/january-madness-guide-to-the-parties/">Jewschool</a>.) <br />
<br />
Have you entered the <a href="http://jewschool.com/2013/01/02/29949/january-madness-2013/">January Madness</a> pool yet? <a href="http://jewschool.com/2006/03/26/10290/last-chance-to-enter-israeli-march-madness/">Once</a> <a href="http://jewschool.com/2009/02/05/15059/february-madness-cliffs-notes/">again</a>,
here is a guide to the 34 parties running in the election, with links
to their websites if we can find them (English if available, otherwise
Hebrew if available, otherwise Arabic if available). In addition, here
are the lists of candidates running on each party list, in <a href="http://www.knesset.gov.il/elections19/heb/list/listindex.aspx">Hebrew</a> (complete), <a href="http://www.knesset.gov.il/elections19/eng/list/ListIndex_eng.aspx">English</a> (incomplete), and <a href="http://www.knesset.gov.il/elections19/arb/list/ListIndex_arb.aspx">Arabic</a> (incomplete).<br />
<br />
<strong>Parties represented in the current Knesset:</strong><br />
<ul>
<li><strong><a href="http://amshalem.org/en/">Am Shalem</a></strong>:
The name of the party (“Whole Nation”) is a play on the name of the
founder, MK Rabbi Haim Amsalem, who was elected as an MK from Shas, but
broke with party orthodoxy (as it were) on issues such as conversion and
whether haredi men should work for a living, and started his own
faction. Am Shalem “seeks to unite all Jews and restore moderate
Judaism to Israel”, and to integrate haredim into the workforce and the
army.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://baityehudi.org.il/englp/">Habayit Hayehudi</a></strong>:
After an aborted attempt in the last election, the far-right National
Union and the former Mafdal (National Religious Party) have succeeded
this time around in forming a combined party. At the top of the joint
list is newcomer Naftali Bennett: high-tech millionaire, son of American
immigrants, and former head of the settler movement. Bennett’s
positions have attracted controversy, including saying he would refuse
military orders to evacuate settlements, and proposing the annexation of
Area C (the parts of the West Bank where the settlements are located).</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://hadash.org.il/english/">Hadash – Democratic Front for Peace and Equality</a></strong>:
This left-wing Arab-Jewish party, which includes the Israeli Communist
Party, is led once again by MK Mohammed Barakeh. Hadash has supported a
two-state solution since before it was popular.
</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.hatnua.org.il/#%21hatnua-english/ckla">Hatenua</a></strong>:
After former Kadima head and opposition leader Tzipi Livni lost the
Kadima leadership election to Shaul Mofaz, she resigned from the
Knesset. Now she’s back with a new centrist party, “The Movement”, and
has recruited 7 of her former Kadima colleagues in the Knesset. As
Kadima’s 2009 candidate for prime minister, Livni has put together an
impressive list of fellow also-rans: in the #2 spot is 2003 Labor
candidate Amram Mitzna, and in #3 is 2006 Labor candidate Amir Peretz.
Hatenua has also joined forces with the Green Movement (whose leader,
Alon Tal, is #13 on the list), which ran a joint list with Meimad in
2009 (but Meimad is not running in this year’s election).</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.havoda.org.il/Web/Default.aspx">Israel Labor Party</a></strong>:
In the 2009 election, Labor (the center-left party going back to the
beginning of the state) hit a historic low, winning only 13 seats. And
then it got even smaller: Party leader (and Defense Minister) MK Ehud
Barak wanted to stay part of the Netanyahu government, and the majority
of the party didn’t, so Barak and 4 other MKs formed a breakaway party,
Atzma’ut (Independence), reducing the Labor faction to 8. (Barak has
announced his retirement from politics, and Atzma’ut is not running in
this election.) Labor is now trying to rebound, with new leadership (MK
Shelly Yachimovich) and a focus on domestic issues. Labor’s candidate
list includes some notable new faces: At #8 is <a href="http://jewschool.com/2012/10/14/29559/stav-shaffir-is-the-first-social-protest-leader-to-enter-knesset-races/">Stav Shaffir</a>, organizer of the tent protests, and at #27 is Rabbi Gilad Kariv, head of the Israeli Reform movement.</li>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.facebook.com/kadimaparty">Kadima</a></strong>:
This centrist party, led at the time by Tzipi Livni, actually won the
largest number of seats (28) in the 2009 election, but was unable to
pull together 60 seats to form a coalition, so Netanyahu got to form the
coalition and become prime minister instead, and Kadima has been
leading the opposition. Kadima is now led by MK Shaul Mofaz, and has
been splintered, with some of its members leaving for Hatenua and
elsewhere.</li>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.likud.org.il/en/">Likud Yisrael Beiteinu</a></strong>:
The Likud, led by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu,
and its lead coalition partner Yisrael Beiteinu, led by MK Avigdor
Lieberman, have combined to form a right-wing superparty. Lieberman
recently resigned as Foreign Minister after being indicted for fraud and
breach of trust, but he remains at #2 on the party list for the
election. The superparty hopes to remain in power for the next Knesset,
and Netanyahu hopes to be reelected for a third term as Prime Minister,
unprecedented since Ben-Gurion.
</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://meretz.org.il/english/">Meretz – Israel’s Left</a></strong>:
The leftmost majority-Jewish party in the Knesset, Meretz has been
shrinking in recent elections. In this election, Meretz will be led for
the first time by MK Zahava Gal-On, who has been active in working
against human trafficking. A number of distinguished Israelis are in
symbolic positions on the Meretz list, such as writer A.B. Yehoshua in
the 109th spot.
</li>
<li><strong>National Democratic Assembly (Balad)</strong>: One of the
two major Arab parties. Once again it is led by MK Jamal Zahalka, who
took over after party founder Azmi Bishara fled the country. But the
candidate who has been attracting more attention is #2 candidate MK
Hanin Zoabi (the first woman elected to Knesset from an Arab party), who
participated in the 2010 Gaza flotilla and was banned by the Central
Elections Committee from running in the election, but was reinstated by
the Supreme Court.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://en.otzmaleisrael.co.il/">Otzma Leyisrael</a></strong>:
Not everyone in the National Union went along with the Habayit
Hayehudi merger. Two MKs stayed behind and started their own (also
far-right) faction: the secular Jabotinskyite MK Arieh Eldad and the
Kahanist MK Michael Ben-Ari. Also on the list, at #3, is Baruch Marzel,
former leader of the banned Kach party.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://shas.org.il/Web/He/Default.aspx">ShasM</a></strong>:
This Sephardi haredi party often wins enough seats to make or break
coalitions. Longtime leader MK Eli Yishai is at the top of the list once
again, but the big news this year is that former leader Aryeh Deri has
returned to politics (after serving time for bribery) and is running at
#2. (Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef is the party’s spiritual leader, but doesn’t
run in the elections.)</li>
<li><strong>United Arab List (Ra’am) – Arab Movement for Renewal (Ta’al) – Arab Democratic Party (Mada)</strong>:
One of the two main Arab parties, made up of multiple factions,
including the southern faction of the Islamic Movement, where party
leader MK Ibrahim Sarsur comes from. Another faction is the Arab
Democratic Party, led by MK Taleb el-Sana (running at #5). Ta’al is MK
Ahmad Tibi’s operation (Tibi is in the #2 spot), and has allied with
Balad and Hadash in the past.</li>
<li><strong>United Torah Judaism</strong>: Despite haredi population
growth, the main Ashkenazi haredi party’s representation in the Knesset
has remained remarkably stable. It is led once again by MK Yaakov
Litzman, who represents the Agudat Yisrael faction and the Ger Hasidim.
At #2 is MK Moshe Gafni, representing the Degel Hatorah faction and the
B’nei B’rak yeshivish crowd.</li>
</ul>
<span id="more-29979"></span><br />
<strong>Parties not represented in the current Knesset:</strong><br />
<ul>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.britolam.org.il/">Brit Olam Legeulat Yisrael</a></strong>:
As far as I can tell, this party is very different from the
Jewish-Arab party that ran under the name Brit Olam in the last
election. (A number of the parties below also have the same names as
parties that ran last time, but are completely unrelated. This is
because it’s easier to register if the party’s name is already on the
books.) This year’s Brit Olam has biblical quotes on its home page, and
the slogan “Yes! to the God of Israel”. Its platform includes Israeli
sovereignty over “all the territories of Judea and Samaria”, the
expansion of settlements, expanded national health care, and higher
salaries for teachers.</li>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/%D7%97%D7%99%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%91%D7%9B%D7%91%D7%95%D7%93-%D7%9C%D7%A7%D7%A9%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%94%D7%91%D7%95%D7%93%D7%93%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%95%D7%94%D7%A2%D7%A0%D7%99%D7%99%D7%9D/577486125611187">Chaim Bekavod</a></strong>: This new party is advocating on behalf of seniors living alone and in poverty.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://en.daam.org.il/">Da’am – Workers Party</a></strong>:
This far-left Arab-Jewish party “views socialism as the alternative to
the present capitalist regime, which has forfeited the trust of its
citizens” and supports the Arab Spring. The party is headed by activist
Asma Aghbarieh-Zahalka (no relation to Balad’s Jamal Zahalka as far as I
know), the first Arab woman to lead an Israeli party.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.gimlaim.org.il/BRPortal/br/P100.jsp">Dor Bonei Haaretz</a></strong>:
“The generation who built the country”. This is the new incarnation of
Gil (the Pensioners’ Party), which surprised everyone and won 7 Knesset
seats in 2006, but then faded away in 2009. They’re still advocating
for retired people.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://eretzchadasha.com/">Eretz Hadasha</a></strong>:
This left-wing party opposes corruption and the influence of money in
politics. Its Facebook page sports a number of pictures of young
supporters who have written the hashtag ארץחדשה# on their hands.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://aleyarok.org.il/">Green Leaf – Liberal List</a></strong>:
The Green Leaf (Aleh Yarok) party has been around for a while,
supporting marijuana legalization. But by rebranding themselves as the
Liberal List, they’re also emphasizing other planks of their platform
“based on the principles of free market and individual freedom”. It’s
“liberal” in the European sense – i.e. closer to what Americans would
call “libertarian”.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://hope-for-change.org/index_h.php">Hatikva Leshinui</a></strong>:
A new Arab party that supports full equality for Arab Israelis and
integration into Israeli society. They want to see Arab Israelis serve
as a bridge in relations between Israel and Arab states.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://aisraelim.com/he/">Hayisraelim</a></strong>: This party represents Russian immigrants, charging that Yisrael Beiteinu (having joined with Likud) no longer represents them.</li>
<li><strong>Koach Lehashpia</strong>: A breakaway party from Shas, led
by Rabbi Amnon Yitzchak (who, like Shas’s R. Ovadiah Yosef, is not
running as a candidate), founder of the kiruv (outreach) organization <a href="http://www.shofar.tv/?lang=en_EN">Shofar</a>.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.nanach.co.il/">Kulanu Haverim</a></strong>: It was bound to happen eventually. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na_Nach">Na Nach</a>
Hasidim, known for dance parties in the streets and graffiti saying “Na
Nach Nachma Nachman Me’Uman” (Hebrew for “Hare Krishna Hare Krishna,
Krishna Krishna Hare Hare”), have formed a political party. Their
platform calls for being happy.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.orr.org.il/">Light (Or)</a></strong>: A secular party calling for separation of religion and state.</li>
<li><strong>Mitkademet Liberalit Democratit</strong>: This party, also known as “Leeder”, is a Russian immigrant party aligned with the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LDPR">Liberal Democratic Party of Russia</a>.
</li>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A8%D7%A9%D7%AA-%D7%90%D7%91%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%90%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%9F-%D7%9E%D7%A9%D7%99%D7%97%D7%90/553431928004275">Moreshet Avot</a></strong>:
Led by Ilan Meshicha Yar-Zanbar, this party says it wants to bring all
the parties together to solve economic problems. Their #3 candidate is
named Moshe Moses.
</li>
<li><strong>Netzach</strong>: A “Lithuanian” haredi party founded by followers of Rabbi <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shmuel_Auerbach">Shmuel Auerbach</a> of Jerusalem. It’s a breakaway from Degel Hatorah (the non-Hasidic faction within United Torah Judaism).
</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.atid1.org.il/">One Future – Fighting the New Drug</a></strong>:
The “new drug” is Internet pornography. They want to pass legislation
requiring Internet providers to filter porn, except to users who opt out
of the filter.
</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://calcala.org.il/">The Economics Party</a></strong>:
This party was founded by American-born brothers Danny and Benny
Goldstein, and is led by Russian-born Kadima MK Yulia
Shamalov-Berkovich. They support a free-market economy, and Danny
Goldstein calls it “the first party in Israeli politics that has
American ideals and American ways”.
</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.green-party.co.il/Election2013/more/english">The Green and Young for a Green Future in Israel</a></strong>:
This is the latest branding for the Green Party (Hayerukim), which has
been around for a while (not to be confused with the Green Movement,
which is running on a joint list with Hatenuah). Like other Green
parties around the world, it is an environmental party. Longtime party
leader Peer Visner was convicted of forgery and fraud, so the party is
now led by Amir Meltzer.
</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://piratim.org/">The Pirates</a></strong>:
ARRRR! Yes, this is a real party. It’s not the type of pirates you’re
thinking of, though their logo is a skull with an eyepatch. It’s
pirates in the sense of software piracy, and they’re part of an
international movement of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirate_Party">Pirate Parties</a>
that has actually gotten candidates elected to the European Parliament
and the Czech Senate. They want to lift restrictions on intellectual
property, and provide free Internet access as a basic right.
</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.tzedekhev.com/">Tzedek Hevrati</a></strong>:
Despite using the same name (“Social Justice”), this is not the party
founded by Russian-Israeli-Angolan billionaire Arkadi Gaydamak. It is a
group of social justice activists, led by Gad Haran, who want to
continue the work of the tent protests. Their platform emphasizes
affordable housing, health care, and raising the minimum wage.
</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.ahim-anahnu.org/">We Are Brothers</a></strong>:
This party was founded by Ethiopian and Indian immigrants, and opposes
racial discrimination. Their platform includes economic measures to
fight poverty.
</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://en.yeshatid.org.il/">Yesh Atid</a></strong>:
By far the most prominent of the parties running in the election that
are not currently represented in the Knesset. This new centrist party
was founded by former TV anchor Yair Lapid, and has put together an
eclectic list of candidates including mayors and rabbis. Their emphasis
is on domestic issues.
</li>
</ul>
Enter <a href="http://jewschool.com/2013/01/02/29949/january-madness-2013/">January Madness</a> now! Good luck!!!BZhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18242965196421853025noreply@blogger.com0